USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 134.77/81 High Jan 6 / 23.6% Oct - Jan downleg
- RES 3: 133.79 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 132.87 High Jan 11
- RES 1: 130.72/131.58 20-day EMA / High Jan 18
- PRICE: 129.84 @ 16:43 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 128.36/127.23 Low Jan 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 125.49 1.50 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
The USDJPY trend outlook is bearish and resistance at 131.58, the Jan 18 high, remains intact. Note too that the price is also trading below the 20-day EMA, at 130.72. A resumption of weakness would open 126.81, a Fibonacci projection - the bear trigger is 127.23, Jan 16 low. On the upside, clearance of 131.58 would be a bullish development. This would signal a short-term reversal and open 133.79, the 50-day EMA.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 3: 97.530 - High Mar 31 (cont)
- RES 2: 97.295 - High Aug 3 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.958 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 96.390 @ 19:04 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 96.300 Oct 26
- SUP 2: 96.070 - Low Sep 27 and bear trigger (cont)
- SUP 3: 95.960 - Low Jun 17 (cont)
Aussie 3yr futures traded sharply lower yesterday, starting the week on a bearish note. The move lower confirms an extension of the current bear cycle and undermines a recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards 96.070, the Sep 27 low on the continuation chart. This level is a key support and bear trigger. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 96.958, the Dec 12 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
- RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
- RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
- RES 1: 1.2242/2446 High Dec 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2030 @ 19:12 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 1.1993 Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 1.1931 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.1779 Low Nov 21
GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The short-term outlook remains bearish. This follows the move lower on Dec 15 and the subsequent follow through reinforces this theme. Attention is on the first key support at 1.1901, the Nov 30 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2446, the Dec 14 high. A turn higher and a break of this hurdle, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 115-26 2.00 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 115-14 50% Aug - Oct Downleg
- RES 2: 114-23/115-11+ High Dec 19 / 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-20+ 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-07+ @ 19:00 GMT Dec 28
- SUP 1: 112-05+ Low Nov 14 and intraday low
- SUP 2: 111-27+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 3 - Dec 13 rally
- SUP 3: 111-01 76.4% retracement of the Nov 3 - Dec 13 rally
- SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10
Treasury futures remain soft and the contract traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from 115-11+, the Dec 13 high and key resistance. The move lower has resulted in a print below support at 112-11+, the Nov 21 low. A clear break of this level would open 111-27+, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, the 20-day EMA, at 113-20+, marks a firm resistance. A break is required to ease the current bearish pressure.
