EURUSD traded lower once again yesterday and conditions remain bearish. Tuesday's impulsive sell-off resulted in a break of 1.0350, May 13 low, to confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. This week’s move also highlights an acceleration of the trend and the pair is touching the lowest levels in 20 years. The focus shifts to 1.0102, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.0467, 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 1.0359.
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AUDUSD remains above 0.7139, the 20-day EMA. S/T conditions are bullish. The pair has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This strengthens current conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 0.7343, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the current bull cycle is still considered corrective. A break of the 20-day EMA would threaten the recent recovery. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low.
EURUSD attention remains on a key short-term resistance and the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel resistance intersects at 1.0760 today and a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Note that the primary trend remains down. An extension lower, with channel resistance intact, would reinforce a bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.
Bobl futures started the week on a softer note, resuming its bear leg once again. Price last week traded through former support at 124.840, May 6 low. Fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 123.760 next, the Oct 16 2013 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 125.380, the May 18 low.