EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
- RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26
- PRICE: 1.1053 @ 05:44 BST Apr 27
- SUP 1: 1.0941 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0840/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
- SUP 4: 1.0745 Low Mar 27
EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and breached resistance at 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high and recent Apr 14 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1127, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting a rising trend. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 1.0941.
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BOBL TECHS: (M3) Watching Support
- RES 4: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
- RES 3: 121.000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
- PRICE: 118.410 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 118.410 Low Mar 28
- SUP 2: 117.705/300 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
- SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
- SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15
Support in Bobl futures at 117.300 remains intact, the Mar 22 low. An important pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 117.705. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.130, the Mar 24 high.
EQUITIES: Most Regional Indices Higher, China Lags
Regional equity markets are mostly higher, following the positive lead from EU/US markets during Monday's session. US futures are also tracking higher, with 0.15/0.20% gains across eminis and Nasdaq futures. China shares are lagging, while gains elsewhere are under the 1% mark at this stage.
- The CSI 300 is off modestly, down 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is close to flat. This comes despite better trends from energy related names, which follows higher oil prices. Saudi Aramco has also taken a 10% stake in Rongsheng Petrochemical, which has likely helped at the margins as well.
- Northbound stock connect flows have been modestly negative again today (1.67bn yuan so far in the session).
- The HSI has been volatile, up 1.2% earlier in the session, before getting back close too flat. We now sit around ~0.70% higher.
- Elsewhere, the Topix is close to flat, while the Kospi is +0.60%, outperforming the Taiex, which is down -0.70%. This follows weakness in the semiconductor space during Monday's session (the SOX off more than 1%).
- The ASX 200 is up close to 1%, aided by broad based commodity price gains. Most SEA bourses are higher but gains are mostly under 0.50%.
BUND TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 3: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
- PRICE: 136.40 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 136.17 Low Mar 27
- SUP 2: 135.80 Low Mar 23
- SUP 3: 135.33/134.80 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
- SUP 4: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
Bund futures continue to trade above 134.80, the Mar 22 low. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.48 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent retracement down appears to have been a correction and attention is on the 140.00 handle and key resistance at 140.30, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger.
