The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and this week’s recovery reinforces this theme. Firm support lies at 0.6576, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a continuation higher and a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high, would resume the uptrend and open the 0.6800 handle.
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USDCAD pierced the 20-day EMA support Tuesday, and is extending losses. Tuesday’s close is a bearish development and works against the broader uptrend. For now, the recovery from 1.3503, Oct 10 high, is reinforcing bullish conditions. Moving average studies also highlight an uptrend and 1.3838, Sep 30 high has been cleared. A clear break and close below the 20-day EMA would suggest scope for a pullback towards 1.3503, Oct 4 low.
Tsys holding strong gains after the close. Tsys had gapped to new session highs early Wed after the BOC hiked less than expected: 50bp to 3.75% vs. 75bp to 4.0% as "hikes beginning to weigh on growth" BOC Gov Macklem. Tsy yields were already extending lows as softer data cools expectations of more hawkish year end policy expectations - before 30YY fell to 4.1401% low on the annc.
The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest sharp pullback appears to be a correction. The cross has found strong support below 144.18, the 20-day EMA and key support has been defined at 143.80, Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open last Friday’s high of 148.40. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.