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Analyst expectations for Powell's press conference (published before FOMC Statement release):

• Barclays: “Powell to signal that the FOMC is in a holding pattern and … that it is well positioned to address the risks on both sides of the dual mandate. We expect him no longer to emphasize that the base case involves additional rate cuts, though he will likely note that if inflation moderates or the labor market weakens significantly, the FOMC would likely cut rates.”
• BofA: “Powell is likely to sound hawkish in the presser. Things to watch: i) Is he open-minded to hikes? ii) How does he assess the impact of the war? iii) Will he lean into the pickup in the labor data?...Powell will probably get asked about the forward guidance language, whether or not it changes, and the threshold for hikes. If he repeats that hikes are not the base case for the majority of the committee, markets will read that as dovish. If he sounds more open minded to hikes (e.g., if he emphasizes the importance of finishing the job on inflation or the fact that inflation has overshot the target for five years), that would be hawkish.”
• Citi: “Powell will likely acknowledge that labor market data have looked somewhat better and that risks to inflation remain. We still expect him to highlight that policy remains well positioned for the Fed to wait and see how data and the Middle East conflict evolve.”
• Deutsche: “With uncertainty still pervasive, we expect he will emphasize that officials are unsure of the precise fallout from the war on the economy and monetary policy. However, Powell could highlight that persistent price pressures become more likely the longer oil prices remain elevated.”
• Jefferies: “it is hard to see how Powell could have more convicted views on the outlook for policy than he did in March. He will once again refer to two-sided risks, and highlight the resilience of the economy as a point in favor of keeping rates on hold. That said, Powell's position as a lame duck takes away some of the utility in asking him too many questions about the outlook for policy since he isn't likely to be making any policy decisions for too much longer.”
• JPMorgan:  “since March the data have tilted a little hawkish, though given the uncertainties we don’t expect Powell to stress this too much. In January, he said hikes weren’t the base case of anyone on the Committee. In March this was still the case, but then for “the vast majority” of the Committee. If asked, we expect a similar description next week.”
• Morgan Stanley: Powell to be asked whether the DOJ investigation announcement means the situation is “well and truly over”.
• NatWest: “We suspect that in his presser Chair Powell will reiterate concern among “some” (e.g., a minority) members of the committee that supported a change in the [guidance] language at this meeting.”
• Nomura: “Powell will largely echo his rhetoric from the March press conference. He will likely indicate officials are comfortable with a "wait-and-see" approach, with policy well positioned to respond to risks on both sides of the dual mandate. Powell will likely also acknowledge broader signs of stabilization in the labor market…Despite uncertainty caused by the Iran War, we expect Powell to maintain his sanguine view on the inflation outlook.”
• UBS: “While we doubt Chair Powell would portray a hike as something the FOMC is considering in the next few meetings, Chair Powell will likely not rule out future rate hikes. We could very easily imagine him saying, it is not a base case, but at some point down the road future rate hikes might be warranted. While he might say that, and likely won't rule out rate hikes, we doubt that is the realistic near-term option until after the FOMC has tried prolonged hold first.”
• Wells Fargo: Powell “likely to stress in his press conference that policy is well positioned to await further data. We expect him to highlight heightened uncertainty stemming from the Iran conflict and its implications for both sides of the dual mandate, while reiterating that the Committee is prepared to adjust policy as needed to balance these risks.”

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