USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jan 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 159.23 High Jan 23
• RES 2: 157.43 Low Jan 19  
• RES 1: 155.75/156.08 50-day EMA / High Feb 03
• PRICE: 155.70 @ 16:21 GMT Feb 3  
• SUP 1: 152.10 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 151.98 38.2% of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jan 14 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: 151.54 Low Oct 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 150.99 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 ‘25 low 

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY are unchanged and a bear cycle remains intact. However, for now, a corrective cycle is in play and the latest recovery has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is at 155.75, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal a possible bullish reversal. Key short-term support has been defined at 152.10, the Jan 27 low.

• Precious metals have rebounded on Tuesday as dip buyers have returned, aided by the softer US dollar.
• Spot gold has risen by a further 5.6% to $4,920/oz, below earlier session highs near the $5,000 mark, but still almost 12% above yesterday’s lows.
• Meanwhile, silver is currently up 6.0% at $84.0/oz, 17% above yesterday’s low.
• Looking ahead, BofA expects volatility in gold and silver to remain elevated, although not at the levels seen in recent sessions as the crash has cleaned up the market somewhat in their view.
• From a technical perspective, the sharp sell-off from last week’s high in gold still highlights a potential top in the long-term trend, and from a short-term perspective, marks an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition.
• A clear break of the 50-day EMA at $4,564 would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $4,274.7, the Dec 31 ‘25 low. Initial resistance is $4,999.2, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Similarly, the strong reversal in silver highlights an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. Price has risen back above the 50-day EMA ($79.60), but scope remains for a deeper retracement to $70.071, the Dec 31 ‘25 low. Initial firm resistance is at $91.70, the 20-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, WTI crude is up 1.7% at $63.2/bbl as the market assesses Iran-related geopolitical risks.
• A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact, although Monday’s impulsive sell-off highlights the beginning of a corrective phase. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $61.19. Key resistance is at $66.48, the Jan 30 high.

Treasuries pare back recent session gains (TYH6 +.5 at 111-19.5), stocks bouncing off lows after the House approves latest funding package - sending bill to Pres Trump for signing, ending latest government shutdown.