MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight: February 2026

Core Surprises Higher With Energy Set To Add - DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT HERE

Key Eurozone February preliminary HICP prints

• Headline 1.90% Y/Y (MNI Median 1.7%, Jan 1.66%)
• Core 2.41% Y/Y (Median 2.2%, Jan 2.18%)

Executive Summary

• Eurozone February headline HICP printed 0.2pp above consensus at 1.90%. The print also showed a core overshoot of a notable 0.2pp at 2.41% Y/Y, driven by both services and core goods, while the non-core aggregates energy and food/alcohol/tobacco saw less of a surprise in February.
• While around half of the services upside vs consensus was driven by Italian hospitality prices, likely influenced by the Winter Olympics, the other half is a bit more unclear with mixed country-level evidence from transport / airfares inflation. Also keeping in mind the core goods upside, this means uncertainty remains on how persistent the February core surprise will turn out to be.
• Higher services this time follows the January report showing the annual repricing in a large set of categories at the beginning of the year seemingly progressing well (meaning, lower rates). Final data for the Eurozone available on February 18 will inform further here to some extent.
• Near-term focus ahead lies on the feedthrough of higher crude and gas prices on the back of the Iran conflict.