USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

Canadian industry price pressures moderated in November versus October's jump, but remained elevated. While core gauges have tended to presage movement in CPI aggregates, the composition suggests that the feedthrough to consumer prices is not so clear, and in any case there is a reasonably long lag.

• The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), which measures the prices of products manufactured in Canada, rose 0.9% M/M after a 26-month high 1.7% in Oct (rev from 1.5%), with the core measure (ex-energy/petroleum products) up 0.4% after a 44-month high 2.0% (rev from 1.9%). This left the annual run rates at 6.1% (5.7% prior) and 6.2% (6.3% prior), respectively, both the highest since 2022.
• Raw materials prices ex-energy/petroleum products likewise saw moderation in growth, to 0.6% M/M after 4.3% in October and 3.1% in September, but the Y/Y rate was still a very elevated 19.0%.
• Most product groups saw price increases in November though rises were led by energy products. And additionally there was a continued upward pressure from "higher prices for unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys (+1.4%)". This was largely due to investor demand for precious metals.
• That was even more stark on a Y/Y basis per StatCan: "16 of 21 commodity groups posted year-over-year increases. The year-over-year increase in the IPPI was driven by price movements in unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys (+58.7%), the largest year-over-year increase for this product group since September 2011. Other product groups that were key upward contributors in November 2025 included fresh and frozen poultry of all types (+37.9%) and fresh and frozen beef and veal (+28.1%)."
• As such the most salient aspect in terms of CPI may be in food prices, which were up over 4% Y/Y in November for the first time since 2023, even as the overall CPI basket has remained closer to 2% Y/Y.

• Stocks are holding decent gains at the start of the shortened Christmas holiday week, albeit amid generally light volumes on by late Monday.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 209.24 points (0.43%) at 48339.18, S&P E-Mini Futures up 37.75 points (0.55%) at 6924.75, Nasdaq up 109.9 points (0.5%) at 23415.97.
• A mix of Energy, Materials, Pharmaceutical, Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led advances in the second half: First Solar +6.67%, Moderna +6.04%, Huntington Ingalls +5.80%, Constellation Brands +5.09%, Norwegian Cruise Line +4.67%, Paramount Skydance +4.18% and Warner Bros Discovery +3.44%.
• Of note, Netflix trades 1.4% lower at the moment after they announced refinancing of a part of its $59B bridge facility with a $5B RCF and two $10B delayed-draw term loans. NFLX is expected to issue up to $25B senior unsecured notes on or before the closing date.
• Conversely, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Information Technology sector shares underperformed late Monday:
  • Dollar Tree -3.97%, Target -2.86%, Lamb Weston Holdings -2.46% and Molson Coors Beverage -2.12%.
  • Dominion Energy -5.35%, Eversource Energy -1.86% and Vistra Corp -0.49%.
  • Seagate Technology -4.49%, Western Digital -2.48%, Zebra Technologies -1.08% and Apple -1.06%.

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8744 @ 15:30 GMT Dec 22
• SUP 1: 0.8728/21 Low Dec 22 / 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The bull cycle in EURGBP that started Dec 9 remains in place and highlights a possible reversal of the Nov 14 - Dec 9 corrective phase. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement,and open 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.