GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• German factory orders were a little stronger than expected in September, at 1.1% M/M amid an August upward revision to -0.4% (-0.8% unrevised). By itself, September represents some recovery in the series but not a material one considering index levels continue to print not far off cycle lows.
• "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 1.9% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 3.0% lower in the 3rd quarter of 2025 than in the 2nd quarter; when large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were down 1.5%", Destatis comments.
• "Month-on-month increases seen in the automotive industry (+3.2%) and the manufacture of electrical equipment (+9.5%). The growth in new orders for the manufacture of other transport equipment (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; +7.5%) also had a positive effect. By contrast, the decline in new orders for the manufacture of fabricated metal products (-19.0%) dragged" on drivers.
• Real turnover in manufacturing (released simultaneously with factory orders) would imply downside for tomorrow's IP vs the 3.0% M/M rebound expected (which would follow a very weak -4.3% in August partially on the back of some temporary summer factory closures). The relationship between the two prints has sometimes been a bix mixed in recent months, however.

• RES 4: 180.37 1.500 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 180.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.82 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 176.50 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 5 
• SUP 1: 176.10 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 175.06 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 173.92 Low Oct 6 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 173.46 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low  

The trend in EURJPY is bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The cross traded to a fresh cycle high last Thursday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This opens 178.94 next, a 1.236 projection of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 175.06. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is 178.82, Oct 30 high.

Comments crossing from Japan's top currency official Mimura in recent minutes. Seems to have helped USDJPY inch away from session highs.

However, while the comments suggest officials are concerned/are monitoring FX movements, they do not indicate intervention is an imminent risk.

• "*JAPAN'S MIMURA: RECENT YEN MOVES DEVIATE FROM FUNDAMENTALS" bbg
• "*MIMURA: YEN LONG POSITIONS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING AFTER SUMMER"
• "*MIMURA: SPECULATION, GEOPOLITICS, TRADE ALL AFFECTING MARKET"
• "*MIMURA: FX EXCESSIVE VOLATILITY, NOT LEVELS, MAIN CONCERN"

Prior examples of "intervention risk" type comments to watch out for: "We can't tolerate speculative moves."...."We will take appropriate action if needed." ...."We're ready to take action at any time."