GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3674.8 - 2.382 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3623.1 - 2.236 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3578.5 - High Sep 3
- PRICE: $3550.2 @ 07:23 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: $3470.3 - Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: $3424.5 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3375.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold is unchanged, it remains in a clear bull cycle and trades closer to its recent highs. This week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3600.00. Initial firm support lies at $3424.5, the 20-day EMA.
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WTI TECHS: (U5) Fades Further
- RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $65.56 @ 07:07 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $65.48/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive session into the Tuesday close, keeping S/T momentum pointed lower. Support to watch remains the 50-day EMA, at $65.48 - a level pierced yesterday. A clear break would expose $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level at the close. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point.
BUNDS: Long End supply is the early focus
- A very light session for Bund Overnight, in fact looking at some of the quotes Overnight, the contract was at time quoted 2 ticks wide.
- Nonetheless, the contract is still closer to its two Weeks high printed Yesterday at 130.60 during the European Cash Equity Open and not post the US ISM Services miss Yesterday afternoon.
- Today's low in Bund (130.28) was were it was trading at pre US ISM, while Today's high of 130.41 was the small downside Opening Gap, which is closed.
- Very short Term Risk is skewed to the upside and the main initial resistance in Bund comes at 130.76.
- Small support comes at the 130.00 figure.
- There are no real Tier 1 Data for today, German Factory Orders had no impact on Govies, not a known Market mover, Italy IP and EU Retail Sales aren't known market movers either.
- SUPPLY: Focus will be on Supply, German 2038, 2042 (equates to 19.2k Buxl) could weigh into the bidding deadline, US Sells $42bn of 10yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Cook, Collins, Daly.
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Testing 50-day EMA
- RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $68.08 @ 07:05 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $67.52/65.06 - Low Aug 5 / Jun 30
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures slipped sharply Friday on the back of the soft NFP print and extended losses into the Monday close. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point.
