EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8552 @ 15:51 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8498/8454 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains plus this week’s extension, reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8454, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.   

Politico reports that, "three separate polls released in the last week showed that more Americans who are aware of the legislation do not support it, though the split remains largely along party lines.”

• A new survey from the Washington Post/Ipsos found that only 23% of Americans strongly or somewhat support the Big Beautiful Bill.
• Ipsos notes: “Many Americans are unfamiliar with the One Big Beautiful Act. However, more say they oppose rather than support the bill, while one in three say they have no opinion.”
• A  Quinnipiac University poll last week found that 53 percent of voters oppose the bill, with 27 percent supporting and 20 percent not offering an opinion.
• A KFF Health Tracking poll found 64 percent of adults having an unfavorable view of the legislation and 35 percent having a favorable view.

Figure 1: “Do you Support or Oppose the Budget Bill Changing Tax, Spending, and Medicaid Policies?”

Source: Washington Post/Ipsos

Likely Fed URLs based on previous meetings (they will only go live at 1400ET):

• Statement
• Summ. Econ. Proj./Dot Plot
• Implement. note