GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22  
• RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.3378 @ 16:16 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: 1.3260/3207 Low Apr 21 / High Apr 3 1 
• SUP 2: 1.3075 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2907 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10 

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and Monday’s rally reinforces current conditions. The pair has recently breached key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434 next, the Sep 26 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.3075, the 20-day EMA.    

Two trade-related headlines have helped more than reverse an earlier shift higher in sentiment. ESM5 is still 1.8% higher on the day but now sits ~15 points lower than pre-initial Bessent headlines at 5278 via a session high of 5339.25. 

• "BESSENT SAYS CHINA NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE A 'SLOG', DESCRIBES CURRENT BILATERAL TRADE SITUATION AS AN EMBARGO -PERSON WHO HEARD JP MORGAN SESSION" – RTRS
• It’s a more downbeat version of Bloomberg earlier reporting that US Tsy Sec Bessent told a closed-door investor summit Tuesday that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate. Negotiations haven’t started but that a deal is possible, according to people who attended his session at an event hosted by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Washington, which wasn’t open to the public or media.
• Politico also ran a story saying the White House is “close” on Japan and India trade agreements but with details sounding far less favorable. One segment from it, here: “I wouldn’t even call them deals,” another person close to the White House said of the frameworks the administration is looking to announce. “Basically, [it’s] an agreement that we would like to talk about doing a deal.”

President Donald Trump’s approval remains relatively stable this week, according to Silver Bulletin’s tracker, but it could fall in the coming days as more surveys come through reflecting concerns over the economy and Trump’s standoff with the Supreme Court and Federal Reserve.

• Silver Bulletin notes: “Trump’s net approval ratings have held steady around -5.0 since April 9th. That’s exactly one week after his Liberation Day tariff announcements.”
• Reuters/Ipsos notes in a new survey out today: “Trump's public approval rating edged down to its lowest level since his return to the White House, as Americans showed signs of wariness over his efforts to broaden his power,”
• Gallup notes: “Public attitudes about several specific aspects of the U.S. economy have changed markedly in the short time Trump has been in office, as Americans’ expectations for the stock market, economic growth and employment have turned negative and consumers are feeling unusually pessimistic about their personal finances.”

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating

Source: Silver Bulletin