GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

US President Donald Trump has told reporters during a Cabinet meeting at the White House that an agreement with Ukraine on rare earths will be signed "shortly", per Reuters.

• Trump said: "We made a deal on rare earths... agreement on rare earths to be signed shortly... We will sign soon."
• Bloomberg notes on Ukrainian rare earths: "While Ukraine has reported a series of deposits, little is known about their potential. Even the former head of Ukraine’s geological survey said there had been no modern assessment of its resources..."
• Trump added, referring to ongoing ceasefire negotiations taking place between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia in Saudi Arabia: "Talking about territory now... talking about power plant ownership."
• The US-mediated negotiations in Riyadh are on their second day. US officials are currently engaged in talks with Russian counterparts, following a corresponding session with a Ukrainian delegation yesterday. The primary focus of this week's talks is formalising an energy infrastructure ceasefire agreed last week and establishing a framework for a maritime truce in the Black Sea.
• The New York Times reports: "Serhii Leshchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office, said that the delegation from Kyiv would hold additional discussions with U.S. officials on Monday, after the Moscow-Washington talks. But he cautioned against expecting an imminent agreement, telling Ukrainian news media that “negotiations are usually not concluded in a single day; they sometimes take months.”"

• Oil prices have been supported today by US President Trump threatening countries that import Venezuelan oil with a 25% tariff from April 2 (WTI +1.2%, Brent +1.1%).
• That would technically leave the EU on the hook for 25% tariffs, having so far been only directly affected by aluminium and steel tariffs (although with more supposedly to follow with announcements on autos and pharma due “at some point” per latest headlines).
• Venezuela is unsurprisingly a marginal share of EU imports of petroleum & related products, worth E1.5bn in 2024 or just 0.4% of E338bn total extra EU petroleum-related imports last year.
• This Venezuelan oil should be easily substituted if this latest tariff concept be formalized, although it’s another difficult-to-implement approach to tariffs.
• It’s a worthwhile reminder of which countries the EU is most reliant on for these imports amidst such a fluid geopolitical backdrop.
• The US has topped the list for two years running including E54bn in 2024 (16%), followed by Norway (11%), Kazakhstan (9%), Algeria (8%) and the UK (6%) as of 2024 EUR values.
• Prospects of stronger EU-Canadian relations have improved in recent months but the gearing of Canadian oil exports to the US has so far proved a limiting factor for Canadian diversification. Whilst extra EU imports of petroleum and related products from Canada has picked up compared to pre-pandemic relative levels at 0.6% of total, they’re still only worth 0.9% of total. 

• RES 4: 113-04   2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 112-13   1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
• RES 1: 111-25   High Mar 11  
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-21+ @ 17:00 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 110-16+ Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 110-12+ Low Mar 6 & 13 
• SUP 3: 110-05/00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 109-13+ Low Feb 24

Treasury futures are trading in a broad range and this consolidation phase marks a pause in the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend - they remain in a bull-mode position. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is unchanged at 110-00, Feb 7 high.