EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0955 High Mar 18
- PRICE: 1.0932 @ 05:56 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 1.0823/1.0721 Low Mar 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0586 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would strengthen the current uptrend and open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0586, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this set-up.
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Capex Key To BoJ Outlook
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Trendline Support
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.573/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 117.280@ 05:37 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: 117.016 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback still appears corrective - for now. However, price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.430. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 117.016. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. A break of it resumes the recent uptrend.
CHINA: Futures Move Up as Cash Yields Move Higher.
- In what seems to be a rare occurrence these days, the China 10YR future rose +0.08 today to be at 108.91.
- The 10YR future has been oscillating within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 109.11 and the 50-day EMA of 108.63.
- China’ s 2YR future rallied also by 0.04 but too remains within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 102.71 and the 50-day EMA of 102.73.
- Key data out for China this week is the MLF Rate where no change is expected, new and used home prices ending the week with the 1 and 5-year Loan prime rate where again no change is expected.
