GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2889.9 - 1.618 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2882.4 - High Feb 5
- PRICE: $2864.2 @ 07:27 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: $2767.4 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $2711.0 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. This week’s appreciation once again, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2889.9 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2711.0, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2767.4.
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GOLD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2653.2 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
BUNDS: Finding support ahead of the 2.50% Yield level.
- Bund has so far found some support just ahead of the 2.50% Yield level, the future would have needed another 12 ticks down to 131.78, instead finding support at 131.90 (20 Day EMA) Yesterday, and also Overnight.
- The 10yr Yield printed a 2.489% high Yesterday following the strong US Data (JOLTS, ISM).
- The German Factory orders and retail sales saw a miss vs consensus, but this was hardly a market mover, with Bund just gaining 7 ticks on the release up to 12 ticks in the following 10 minutes since the release.
- Support will again be at the 2.50% level in Yield term, while resistance is seen at 132.57, followed by 132.71, and 133.08.
- It is a lighter day on the Data front out of Europe, early focus will again be on supply.
- Out of the US, ADP, IJC and final Wholesales Inventories are the notable releases, while the FOMC minutes are also scheduled, but unlikely to be a mover.
- SUPPLY: UK £4.25bn 2030 (Equates to 19.6k Gilt) could weigh, German €5bn Bund (equates to 41.26k Bund) should weigh into the bidding deadline. US sells $22bn of 30yr re opening.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Waller, ECB Villeroy.
- SYNDICATION: Italy Dual Tranche.
EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 166.54 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.55 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 163.38 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 162.55/160.91 20-day EMA / Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
EURJPY has traded higher this week but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish short-term condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.
