NORWAY: Trend LFS Unemployment Rate Steady In August
The Norwegian trend adjusted LFS unemployment rate was 4.7% in August, with July’s reading revised up a tenth.
- Persistent labour market weakness would be one reason for Norges Bank to go against its hawkish September decision guidance in the coming months, but any weakness in LFS unemployment figures would likely have to be seen in the registered unemployment data as well.
- The seasonally adjusted LFS rate is volatile, rising four tenths in August to 4.9% from 4.5% in July, 5.4% in June and 4.6% in May. The rise was due to an increase in the labour force, and not a fall in employment.
- Employment trends were generally positive, rising 0.5% M/M SA (vs -0.4% prior). Employment rose 0.4% Q/Q (vs 0.5% prior), 0.7% 3m/3m (vs 0.6% prior) and 1.6% Y/Y (vs 0.1% prior).
- Wage data in the monthly LFS can be volatile, and we prefer to look more closely at quarterly data from the LFS and (more importantly) national accounts. That said, preliminary estimates of the average renumeration in cash pointed to a 4.6% Y/Y rise in August (vs 5.5% in July, 4.9% June).
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Historical bullets
GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23
- PRICE: $3373.7 @ 07:21 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $3311.6/3268.2 - Low Aug 20 / Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
The medium-term trend condition in Gold remains bullish - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The sideways direction that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first key support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Gains Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $69.98/72.83 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.49 @ 07:06 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures are holding on to their most recent gains. Despite the latest recovery - a correction - a bear cycle remains intact. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
GILT TECHS: (Z5) Southbound
- RES 4: 92.15 High Aug 11
- RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 91.45 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 91.24 High Aug 18 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 90.96 @ Close Aug 22
- SUP 1: 90.31 Low Aug 22
- SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and a key support
- SUP 3: 90.0089.99/ Psychological round number / Low Apr 9 (cont)
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Note that on the continuation chart, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend - for now. First support to watch is 90.31, the Aug 22 low. A break would resume the bear leg and open the 90.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 91.24, the Aug 18 high.
