SILVER TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up
* RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance * RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 '24 and the bull trigger *...
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STIR: BoE Cut Fully Discounted For May, Nearly 90bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec
Continued risk-off price action promotes further dovish repricing in GBP STIRs, as the U.S. administration’s hardline stance on tariffs and a subsequent sell off in Asian equities ripples through markets.
- BoE-dated OIS 4.0-13.5bp more dovish across ’25 meetings, leaving 27.5bp of cuts priced for May, 41bp through June, 60bp through August and 88.5bp through December.
- SONIA futures are 2.0-13.0 higher, with most contracts registering the highest levels seen since October.
- Expect tariff cues to continue to dominate, with little of note on the UK calendar today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-25 | 4.182 | -27.4 |
Jun-25 | 4.049 | -40.7 |
Aug-25 | 3.852 | -60.4 |
Sep-25 | 3.751 | -70.4 |
Nov-25 | 3.627 | -82.8 |
Dec-25 | 3.569 | -88.6 |
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4304 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4271 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4255 @ 08:01 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from last week’s low. For now, the move higher appears corrective. The sell-off last week confirmed a clear reversal of the bull cycle between Sep 25 ‘24 and Feb 3. Price has traded through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low, and this signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4304, the 50-day EMA
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Support
- RES 4: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6389 High Apr 3
- RES 2: 0.6295 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6077/0.6219 Intraday high / Low Mar 31
- PRICE: 0.6015 @ 07:57 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 0.59311.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.5900 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
Friday’s steep sell-off in AUDUSD cancels a recent bullish theme and instead, confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late September last year. Today’s fresh cycle low reinforces a bear theme. A key support at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low, has been broken. This paves the way for an extension towards 0.5931 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6219, the Mar 31 low.
