US: Treasury Dept Expected To Send Congress X-Date Projection Next Week
The US Treasury Department is expected to send Congress, next week, its projection for the so-called X-date, when the federal government exhausts its borrowing ability.
- Punchbowl News reports: “Most estimates for the date when the federal government will reach its borrowing limit… peg it at some point this summer or early fall. But Treasury is expected to give its most updated estimate next week as April tax receipts come in.”
- The GOP is expected to raise the debt limit in its massive party-line reconciliation bill. The House blueprint calls for a $4 trillion hike, while the Senate blueprint calls for $5 trillion. Should the GOP fail to convince deficit hawks to back the debt limit boost in reconciliation, the GOP would be forced to address the measure in a standalone package requiring Democratic support.
- The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget summarises the CBO and BPC X-date projections here.
- CRFB: “Specifically, CBO estimates that the X date – the date at which the U.S. will no longer be able to complete all of its obligations on time and in full – will be reached in August or September, when the “extraordinary measures” currently being employed by the Treasury Department will be completely exhausted. … the Bipartisan Policy Center estimated that the X date will fall between mid-July and early October.”
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
