SILVER TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $38.077 @ 08:14 BST Aug 22
- SUP 1: $37.161/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver are unchanged and remain bullish. Prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.161. A clear break of the average is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
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FOREX: Westpac Still Recommend Long Basket Of EUR, JPY, AUD & CAD Vs. USD
Westpac continue to recommend a long basket of AUD, CAD, JPY and EUR vs. USD, looking for “structural medium term USD downside risks to continue to unfold more evenly and consistently against a mix of both more liquid safe havens (the clean USD alternatives) and “riskier” business cycle currencies (the less clean alternatives)”.
- The basket weights are AUD: 18.04%, CAD: 33.74%, EUR: 25.37% & JPY: 22.85%, the (inverse) of the realised volatility of each pair vs the USD over the past 3 months.
USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain IN The Driver's Seat
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3738/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17
- PRICE: 1.3600 @ 08:10 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 1./3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and this week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. Resistance at 1.3738, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, a continuation lower open key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6570 @ 08:05 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. It has recently been breached, however, the pair has found support below it. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
