SILVER TECHS: Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

Westpac continue to recommend a long basket of AUD, CAD, JPY and EUR vs. USD, looking for “structural medium term USD downside risks to continue to unfold more evenly and consistently against a mix of both more liquid safe havens (the clean USD alternatives) and “riskier” business cycle currencies (the less clean alternatives)”.

• The basket weights are AUD: 18.04%, CAD: 33.74%, EUR: 25.37% & JPY: 22.85%, the (inverse) of the realised volatility of each pair vs the USD over the past 3 months.

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3738/74 50-day EMA / High Jul 17 
• PRICE: 1.3600 @ 08:10 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 1./3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and this week’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. Resistance at 1.3738, the 50-day EMA, remains intact for now. A clear break of it is required to highlight a possible stronger short-term reversal. For bears, a continuation  lower open key support at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6595 High Jul 11 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 0.6570 @ 08:05 BST Jul 23
• SUP 1: 0.6494/6455 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: 0.6435 23.6% retracement of the Sep 9 - Jul 11 bull leg   
• SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Support to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6494. It has recently been breached, however, the pair has found support below it. A clear break of this EMA would highlight a stronger reversal and expose 0.6435, a Fibonacci retracement. Sights are on key short-term resistance at 0.6595, the Jul 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.