GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.3893 1.236 proj of the Aug 1 - 14 - Sep 3 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3753 High Jul 2
- RES 1: 1.3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- PRICE: 1.3467 @ 13:33 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: 1.3465 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3433 Trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low
- SUP 3: 1.3333 Low Sep 3
- SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3433, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Work Begins On Security Guarantees For Ukraine
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- At 16:00 ET 21:00 BST, President Donald Trump will hold a swearing-in ceremony for his EU ambassador. As with all Oval Office events, Trump is likely to deliver remarks to the press on a range of topics.
- The dust settled on Monday’s White House summit without substantive details on the contours of a peace deal. The two most intractable obstacles – territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine - remain without an obvious solution.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead negotiations with European and Ukrainian counterparts on a detailed proposal on security guarantees. Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine will host military counterparts from Europe today to begin discussions on security guarantees. The 32 NATO defence chiefs will also meet virtually.
- Companies are signalling price rises to guard against the cost of tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is satisfied with the tariff status quo with China.
- Trump renewed his criticism of Fed Chair Powell ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
- The White House intends to fast-track Stephen Miran to the Fed board in time for the Fed's September meeting.
- Republicans could suffer political pain from rising electricity prices.
- The Treasury Department hopes that stablecoins will shore up demand for government debt.
- The Israeli government is reviewing a Gaza ceasefire deal.
- Poll of the Day: Approval of Trump's handling of the economy is worse than at any point during his first term.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
GILTS: 30-Year Yields Off Highs, Uptrend Intact
{GB} GILTS: While gilt bears managed to force the highest closing level for 30-Year yields seen in the current cycle on Monday (5.611%), they failed to challenge the intraday high registered in early April (5.659%), with the subsequent recovery leaving the benchmark at 5.55%.
- While demand for long end paper has been robust in instances of primary issuance, structural reduction in pension holdings reduce demand in the secondary market, while the UK’s ongoing fiscal fragility provides background pressure (at a minimum).
- As a result, the uptrend in play since the ’21 low remains intact, with that support line ~20bp below prevailing levels at typing.
Fig. 1: UK 30-Year Gilt Yield (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.
