US TSYS: Trade Sentiment, Strong Earnings Add to Risk-On Tone
Jul-23 19:37
* Treasuries look to finish near session lows Wednesday, improved sentiment tied to trade and bett...
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
Jun-23 19:30
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6479/6552 20-day EMA / High June 16 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6428 @ 15:46 BST Jun 23
- SUP 1: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6309 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jun 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The medium-term trend set-up in AUDUSD is unchanged, the outlook remains bullish. However, a corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a break of support around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6435. A clear break of this average would signal scope to a deeper correction and open 0.6357, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would highlight a stronger reversal. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6479, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Tsys Bid With Stocks, Not the Reaction You Were Expecting
Jun-23 19:26
- Treasuries looked to finish higher Monday (TYU5 +11.5 at 111-11), curves bull steepening (2s10s +2.645 at 49.176) as rates & stocks rallied on initially muted response by Iran to US bombing over the weekend.
- Stocks extended gains even after Iran launched missiles at US base in Qatar, possible face saving measure as Iran warned US prior, most if not all missiles intercepted.
- Risk gained traction on dovish comments on potential rate cuts from Fed VC Bowman and Chicago Fed Goolsbee if inflation remains muted.
- Projected rate cut pricing gains traction vs. this morning's levels (*), Dec at the highest since May 12: Jul'25 at -5.9bp (-3.6bp), Sep'25 at -25.2bp (-19.5bp), Oct'25 at -32.6bp (-40.7bp), Dec'25 at -58.8bp (-49.9bp).
- Existing home sales unexpectedly ticked up in May to a 4.03M seasonally-adjusted annual pace, from 4.00M in April (and vs 3.95M survey).
- Flash S&P manufacturing PMI held steady at 52.0 for a second month (cons 51.0) after 50.2 in both March and April whilst services dipped to 53.1 (cons 53.0) after 53.7 in May.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Philly Fed, Cons Confidence, Fed Speakers
Jun-23 19:13
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 06/24 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (-41.9, --)
- 06/24 0830 Current Account Balance (-$303.9B, -$445.5B)
- 06/24 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (-0.1%, 0.0%)
- 06/24 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (-0.12%, 0.0%), YoY (4.07%, 3.94%)
- 06/24 0915 Cleveland Fed Hammack on monetary policy
- 06/24 1000 Fed Ch Powell Semiannual Testimony to House
- 06/24 1000 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (-9, -10)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (98.0, 99.8)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Present Situation (135.9, --)
- 06/24 1000 Conf. Board Expectations (72.8, --)
- 06/24 1130 US Tsy $55B 6W Bill auction
- 06/24 1230 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks
- 06/24 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y note auction (91282CNL1)
- 06/24 1345 MN Fed Kashkari town hall event
- 06/24 1400 Boston Fed Collins on nation's housing
- 06/24 1600 Fed Gov Barr welcoming remarks
- 06/24 2015 KC Fed Schmid economic outlook
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
