US-EU: Trade Commissioner-"Tariff Reciprocity Must Work For Both Sides"

Feb-20 14:30

European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič speaking on his visit to the US where he is meeting with senior officials in an effort to avoid the further escalation of trade tensions. Wires quote Šefčovič saying he is seeking "common ground in talks with the US...we need to focus on positive momentum in trade talks". Šefčovič: "Overall US tariffs are slightly higher than EU tariffs...[we] saw some US openness to lowering tariffs."

  • Says that during talks so far "we discussed the car industry to quite an extent". Will hold meetings with European automakers on 21 Feb.
  • Šefčovič: "Tariff reciprocity must work for both sides...We are ready to look at lower industrial tariffs...Let's not target each other's steel and aluminium". Claims that LNG and soybeans are areas in which the US and EU can cooperate.
  • Reuters reported on 19 Feb, "In the meeting with U.S. counterparts, he said he would like to learn their priority trade topics so that discussions can start to reach common ground in a "solid, solid package." But Sefcovic reiterated prior statements that there was no justification for unilateral U.S. tariffs, and that the EU would "respond firmly and swiftly, but we do hope to avoid this scenario."

Historical bullets

US: Trump To Meet With Congressional GOP Leaders At White House Today

Jan-21 14:27

US President Donald Trump will hold two meetings with Congressional Republican leaders today at the White House to discuss legislative strategy and the impending deadlines of FY2024 government funding (March 14) and the debt ceiling (sometime in the summer). 

  • Trump is expected to meet House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) at 14:00 ET 19:00 GMT then the whole Congressional GOP leadership team at 15:00 ET 20:00 GMT.
  • Congressional leaders will petition Trump to endorse their preferred reconciliation strategy, with Trump's firm public support seen as crucial to resolving a bicameral disagreement, especially in light of Johnson's self-imposed March deadline for a Congressional budget agreement to underpin the entire GOP agenda.
  • Johnson appears to still favour a single huge reconciliation bill, with Thune leaning towards dividing the agenda into two bills with an energy and border security bill to come ASAP and a tax bill to follow later in the year.   
  • Punchbowl News notes: “Johnson and Thune are looking for legislative wins. That requires planning, focus and execution, not exactly Trump’s strong points during his first term.”
  • Punchbowl notes on reconciliation: “…there’s so much more that Johnson and Thune need to hear from Trump. What precisely are his true must-haves in the reconciliation bill? Is Trump still intent on the smattering of tax policies that he talked about on the campaign trail, such as cutting taxes on Social Security and Americans living abroad? What about tariffs?”

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Risk Reversal

Jan-21 14:25

ERM5 97.75/98.50 RR, bought the put for 12 in 10k (ref 97.735, 52%d).

UKRAINE: Zelenskyy Calls On Europe To Hit Trump's 5% Of GDP Defence Spending

Jan-21 14:20

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been speaking at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos. Making his first public comments since US President Donald Trump's return to office, Zelenskyy urges Europe to unify its security and defence policy, adding that Europe 'must establish itself as a strong global player'. Says Russia's deals with Iran and North Korea are 'against Europe and the US'. 

  • Referring to Trump's demand that European NATO members raise defence spending to 5% of GDP, Zelenskyy says 'If it takes 5% of GDP for Europe to cover defence, then so be it, 5% it is', adding 'Europe must be able to guarantee peace and security for itself and for others.' Zelenskyy claims that 'Real security guarantees for Ukraine will serve as real guarantees for Europe.'
  • The call for 5% of GDP to be spent on defence has divided EU members. Poland and Lithuania back the target, even if they are not yet spending at that level. Others have said 5% of GDP would be unachievable without economically devastating tax hikes and spending cuts.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron said on 20 Jan “France currently exceeds 2 percent of GDP for defense spending. But is that enough to achieve the mass, depth and innovation to defend ourselves in a major confrontation? Is that enough to organize ourselves on a European scale and have the means to fight?”, implying he would not opposed further spending increases (albeit coming during difficult budget negotiations domestically).