EU: Trade Commissioner Talks FTAs On ASEAN Visit

German IFO export expectations deteriorated in August, falling to -3.6 points from -0.3 points in July. “Disillusionment is spreading in export business [...] Although a tariff rate of 15 percent from the US is less than feared, it will nevertheless weaken export momentum”, IFO adds.

• August's drop following that US-EU trade deal was a little less than half the size of that following the initial April 2 US tariff announcements.
• "Food and beverage manufacturers took a major hit, with the export outlook becoming noticeably gloomier. Companies in metal production and processing also expect a decline in international sales. There is little movement in mechanical engineering. The same applies to data processing equipment manufacturers."
• "In the chemical industry, there is cautious optimism, with companies expecting exports to increase. That also applies to the furniture industry and manufacturers of electrical equipment."
• Recall that in Q2 GDP data, German exports held up reasonably well at -0.1% Q/Q following the strong +2.5% Q1 which was underpinned by US tariff front-running. Net exports fared less favourably last quarter, however.

• E3bln WNG of the new 7-year Sep-32 RAGB
• Spread set at MS+30 (guidance was MS+33 area)
• Books in excess of €16bn including €2.2bn JLM interest
• Format: Reg S, Bearer, 144A eligible, CAC
• Settlement: 02 September 2025 (T+5)
• Maturity: 20 September 2032 (7Y)
• Size: EUR 3 billion (Will not grow, excluding potential issuer retention)
• Coupon: TBD, Fixed, Ann., ACT/ACT (Long 1st to 20 September 2026)
• ISIN: AT0000A3NY15
• Bookrunners: BofA / DB(DM/B&D) / Erste Group / HSBC / JPM / Raiffeisen Bank International
• Timing: Books to close a 11.15CET / 10.15UKT

From market source

France looks set for another period of significant political instability after PM Francois Bayrou effectively called a confidence vote in his own gov't on 25 Aug. Bayrou said that he had requested an extraordinary session of the National Assembly to be convened on Monday, 8 September to "confirm the scale" of spending cuts in the upcoming 2026 state budget, adding that "If you have a majority, the government is confirmed. If you do not have a majority, the government falls".

• The Bayrou gov't has been living on borrowed time for a while now. Formed by the centrist Ensemble bloc and the centre-right Les Republicains (LR), the gov't holds only 210 seats in the 577-member legislature. With the leftist New Popular Front alliance and the far-right Rassemblement National both set to vote against Bayrou, the gov'ts dismissal appears more likely than not.
• With more than a year having passed since that vote, President Emmanuel Macron is at liberty to call another set of legislative elections. Speaking to France 2 TV earlier, Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin said, "Dissolution [of the Assembly] is costly for France, of course, but this hypothesis should not be ruled out."
• Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI), confirmed in an interview with France Inter that his group will move forward with a motion of impeachment against Macron on 23 September. Melenchon claimed Macron must be removed from office as he is the "cause" of the current political paralysis.
• The collapse of the Bayrou gov't could come at the same time as a major effort by the left to pressure the Macron administration, with the 'bloquons tout' ('black everything') efforts to call a general strike, as well as road blockades and corporate boycotts.