FED: Today’s Fedspeak Likely More Notable On Balance Sheet Discussions
Today sees six different scheduled FOMC speakers, even if we expect the main interesting comments from a traditional monetary policy angle to come Collins late on. Speaking focus instead is likely on balance sheet considerations, first with NY Fed’s Williams before NY Fed SOMA Manager Perli, seen in light of funding pressures last month as reserves have moved closer to ample.
- 0920ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) keynote speech at Treasury Market Conference (text only). He said on Friday that it won’t be long before reserves are ample at which point the Fed will begin gradual purchases of assets to maintain growth in liabilities. As for the rate outlook, he repeated that the natural interest rate is hard to pin down but he still thinks a low r* era is still with us.
- 1000ET – Paulson (’26) at fintech conference (text only). The topic could limit mon pol discussion although she indicated ahead of the Oct 29 FOMC decision that she’s in-line with the median FOMC voter looking for another cut in December.
- 1020ET – Gov. Waller (voter) on payments at fintech conference (no text). Again, unlikely to meaningfully touch on mon pol and he’s clearly in the camp for another cut in December.
- 1215ET – Bostic (non-voter) at Atlanta Economics Club (text + Q&A). He "eventually got behind" last month’s cut but finds it preferable to move slower when there's so little clarity.
- 1230ET – Miran (voter) in fireside chat (no text). The outright dove on the FOMC with two dissents for 50bp cuts in both Sept and Oct meetings, he continues to call for a 50bp cut next month as well.
- 1600ET – Collins (’25) at community banking conference (text only). These could be her first mon pol comments since the Oct FOMC decision, having said beforehand that perhaps another 25bp of easing might be appropriate. That of course was delivered last month which could see in a December pause camp.
- Outside of those FOMC speakers, we also note that Roberto Perli (NY Fed SOMA Manager) will give closing remarks at the Treasury Market Conference today at 1550ET, with the 20min slot allowing reasonable detail.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BOE: Greene's comments remain consistent with last week
"*BOE'S GREENE: MIGHT NEED TO WORRY MORE ABOUT 2ND-ROUND EFFECTS
*BOE'S GREENE: I AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW RESTRICTIVE MONETARY IS
*BOE'S GREENE: CASE FOR HIGHER FOR LONGER RATES, SKIPPING CUT" Bloomberg
These are all in line with recent communications. The MPC statement still describes policy as restrictive too ("The timing and pace of future reductions in the restrictiveness of policy...").
BOE: Greene says more concerned about food prices than energy
This is an interesting point. The research the MPC has been citing has suggested that food prices, energy and fuel prices have outsized impacts on inflation expectations. And the narrative had been that food prices were the more concerning recently. This seems to be the point that Greene is making - not that she would be more worried about food than energy if they were both increasing - but that food prices are more of the near-term concern.
- "*BOE'S GREENE: I AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FOOD THAN ENERGY PRICES
- *BOE'S GREENE: HOUSEHOLDS PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO FOOD PRICES" Bloomberg
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Recovery In Gilts Extends
- In the FI space, Bund futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. The move higher reinforces a bullish theme and attention is on the next key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. Clearance of this hurdle would pave the way for a climb towards 129.58, 61.8% of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg. Initial support to watch lies at 128.64, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would instead signal a reversal.
- Gilt futures rallied sharply higher on Friday confirming a resumption of the recovery that started Sep 25. The move higher reinforces a bullish theme and attention is on the next key resistance at 91.28, the Sep 24 high. It has been pierced, a continuation higher would pave the way for an extension towards key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 11 high. On the downside, price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. First support lies at 90.86, the 20-day EMA.
