EM CEEMEA CREDIT: TLWLN: posts FY24 FCFs @ USD156mn
Tullow Oil (TLWLN; Caa1NEG/B-NEG/-)
"*Tullow Oil 2024 Free Cashflow $156M" - BBG
- comes at low end of the revised guidance range (150-200)
from our note on Dec 13, 2024:
· REVISED GUIDANCE – negative - TLWLN revised down (Nov 28) its guidance on FCF to USD150-200mn from USD200-300mn on the back of overdue gas payments from GHANA and production delays relating to lifting from its offshore Jubilee field, Ghana. This poses significant pressure on its refinancing needs, mitigated in part by the recently extended (to end of 1H25) USD250mn RCF. We see headwinds ahead.
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BONDS: Bonds are in the Green heading into Year End
- Europe is closed and the US and the UK will have an early close as we turn the page on 2024.
- US Tnotes (TYH5) continues to see a decent recovery in Futures, right on the June High in Yield of 4.6357%, tested on the 26th December with a 4.6393% high on that day.
- Further upside continuation in futures will see the next immediate resistance in Futures at 109.08+ (4.48% in Yield), but the lack of liquidity will likely keep the contract fairly subdued, given that it has only traded 50k lots overnight and into the European session.
- There's no notable data, nor speakers for the session
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38/45 High Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 92.46/93.09 High Dec 12 / 21
- PRICE: 92.12 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.45, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 166.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 163.08 @ 16:11 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 162.82 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 162.31/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 157.87 Low Dec 09
EURJPY has pulled back from Monday’s high, but a bullish short-term condition remains intact for now. Initial firm support lies at 162.31, the 20-day EMA. The cross has recently breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.
