UK FISCAL: Timetable and economic / fiscal data included in the OBR's forecasts
- Just to reiterate that we are in the 10 week countdown to the Budget (kicked off by the Chancellor announcing the date and asking the OBR to provide a forecast). There has been focus recently on the productivity targets (flagged in particular by the IFS).
- The OBR's timetable for the forecast round is set out below.
- There are three pre-measures rounds which incorporate updated economic and fiscal data and do not take into account new policies unless they have already been announced e.g. the winter fuel payments. Other policies are separately costed at first.
- The first of these forecasts will be sent to the Chancellor on Friday 3 October (in the past this has led to increased speculation around the forecasts at this time and the increased possibility of media leaks).
- The second forecast on 20 October will take into account the updated labour market data and August GDP.
- The final pre-measures round we expect to include next month's public finance data as well as September CPI and that will be presented to the Chancellor on Halloween.
- After that, the first round to incorporate proposed new measures will be on 10 November (but the November MPC decision will be past the cut off) and then the final major round will be sent to the Chancellor on Friday 21 November ahead of the Budget the following week - most proposed measures are in place by then but there is always room for last minute tweaks.
- Q2 GDP revisions: Tuesday 30 September
- Round 1 (Pre-measures): Friday 3 October
- Labour market data (including updated July AWE numbers used for pension triple lock): Tuesday 14 October
- August monthly GDP: Thursday 16 October
- Round 2 (Pre-measures): Monday 20 October
- September public finance data: Tuesday 21 October
- September CPI (which is expected by the BOE and most analysts to mark the peak and is also used for uprating most benefits): Wednesday 22 October
- Round 3 (Pre-measures): Friday 31 October
- Round 4: Monday 10 November: Round 4
- Round 5: Friday 21 November: Round 5
- Wednesday 26 November: UK Budget and OBR's EFO (Economic and Fiscal Outlook) published.
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Historical bullets
SEK: Weakening Into Riksbank
SEK is weakening a little into the Riksbank decision. EURSEK up 0.2% at 11.1996 at typing. Initial resistance the August 7 high at 11.2206.
GILTS: Off Early Lows
Gilts see similar price action to GBP STIRs at the open, moving lower, before recovering on cues from EGBs and the lack of meaningful hawkish repricing in the short end in the wake of the CPI data (we detailed the reasons why we thought that would be the case ahead of time).
- Futures traded as low as 90.54 before recovering to 90.77.
- Bears remain in technical control, initial support and resistance located at 90.43/91.32.
- Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
- The May high in 10s (4.80%) remains untouched.
- 50s have pierced 5.00% over the past couple of sessions, but bears failed to force a meaningful move above the psychological level, 4.965% last.
- Outside of the CPI data, Brightmine wage growth (released overnight) once again held steady at 3.0% in Y/Y terms for the three months through July.
- Little of note on the UK macro calendar for the remainder of the day.
SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
- RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- PRICE: $37.177 @ 08:23 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: $37.090/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
- SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg
- SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.090. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.
