UK FISCAL: Timetable and economic / fiscal data included in the OBR's forecasts

SEK is weakening a little into the Riksbank decision. EURSEK up 0.2% at 11.1996 at typing. Initial resistance the August 7 high at 11.2206.

Gilts see similar price action to GBP STIRs at the open, moving lower, before recovering on cues from EGBs and the lack of meaningful hawkish repricing in the short end in the wake of the CPI data (we detailed the reasons why we thought that would be the case ahead of time).

• Futures traded as low as 90.54 before recovering to 90.77.
• Bears remain in technical control, initial support and resistance located at 90.43/91.32.
• Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
• The May high in 10s (4.80%) remains untouched.
• 50s have pierced 5.00% over the past couple of sessions, but bears failed to force a meaningful move above the psychological level, 4.965% last.
• Outside of the CPI data, Brightmine wage growth (released overnight) once again held steady at 3.0% in Y/Y terms for the three months through July.
• Little of note on the UK macro calendar for the remainder of the day.

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.177 @ 08:23 BST Aug 20
• SUP 1: $37.090/36.216 - 50-day EMA / Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recently recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.090. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.