UK: Timeline of key events (Times GMT)

Mar-17 06:23
Date Time Period Event
17-Mar 1200 ---- Bank Of England Interest Rate / BOE MPC Minutes
22-Mar 0930 Feb Public Sector Net Borrowing / Cash
22-Mar 1100 Mar CBI Industrial Trends
22-Mar 1515 Mar XpertHR pay deals for whole economy
23-Mar 0001 ---- BOE Cunliffe Panels BIS Innovation Summit
23-Mar 0700 Feb PPI / CPI
23-Mar ---- ---- DMO 2022-23 Financing Remit
23-Mar 1200 ---- BOE Bailey Panels BIS Innovation Summit
23-Mar 1230 ---- FY 2022/23 Budget statement
23-Mar 1530 ---- DMO Quarterly Consultation Meetings Agenda
24-Mar 0930 Mar IHS Markit Manufacturing / Services / Composite (p)
24-Mar 1100 Mar CBI Distributive Trades
24-Mar 1300 ---- BOE Mann Panels Institute of International Finance event

Historical bullets

UK: Timeline of key events (Times GMT)

Feb-15 06:23
Date Time Period Event
15-Feb 0700 Dec Labour Market Survey
16-Feb 0700 Jan Consumer Inflation Report
16-Feb 0700 Jan Producer Prices
16-Feb 0930 Jan ONS House Price Index
18-Feb 0700 Jan Retail Sales
21-Feb 0930 Feb IHS Markit Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI (p)
22-Feb 0700 Jan Public Sector Finances
22-Feb 1100 Feb CBI Industrial Trends
24-Feb 1100 Feb CBI Distributive Trades
24-Feb 1315 ---- BOE Bailey Intro at BEAR Research Conference
24-Feb 1600 ---- BOE Broadbent moderates panel at BEAR Conference on QE
25-Feb 1800 ---- BOE Pill closing remarks at BEAR Conference

EUROZONE: Timeline of key events (Times GMT)

Feb-15 06:18
Date Time Country Event
15-Feb 0800 ES HICP (f)
15-Feb 1000 DE ZEW Current Expectations Index
15-Feb 1000 EU GDP (p) / Trade Balance / Employment
16-Feb 1000 EU Industrial production
17-Feb 0700 EU ECB Schnabel discussion with SPD
17-Feb ---- EU ECB Lagarde at G20 CB Governors Meeting
17-Feb 1400 EU ECB Lane on MNI Webcast on ECB Policy
18-Feb 0745 FR HICP (f)
18-Feb 900 EU EZ Current Acc
18-Feb 1000 EU Construction production
18-Feb 1300 EU ECB Elderson speech on industry climate risks
18-Feb ---- EU ECB Lagarde at G20 CB Governors Meeting
18-Feb 1500 EU consumer confidence indicator (p)
18-Feb 1830 EU ECB Panetta on CB digital currencies

US TSYS: Incrementally Richer In Asia

Feb-15 06:13

Russia-Ukraine standoff worry applied a very modest bid to U.S. Tsys overnight. Social media circulation of images re: the Russian troop movements flagged on Monday (into an “attack formation”), coupled with some commentary from various U.S. military watchers, seems to have applied very modest pressure to e-minis in recent trade. Still, there didn’t seem to be much new information in the tweets. We also saw the U.S. State Department issue travel warnings/guidance to leave re: the likes of Belarus & Moldova overnight, which applied light pressure to broader sentiment. Still the overall bid was modest, and at least partially tempered by the PBoC’s move to leave the interest rate applied to its MLF operations steady (although this was consensus, 11 of the 27 surveyed by BBG looked for some form of cut). TYH2 +0-05+ at 126-05 as a result (sticking within a 0-05+ range in Asia), with cash Tsys running 1-2bp richer. On the flow side, it was a TU block buyer (+5K) that headlined in Asia.

  • To recap, the lack of outright escalation re: the Russia-Ukraine situation allowed Tsys to cheapen on Monday. Momentum was aided by what appeared to be a bit of a staged television address by Russian President Putin & Foreign Minister Lavrov, with the two agreeing on the need for continued diplomatic talks with the west re: the situation. It wasn’t all one-way trade, with an apparent dose of sarcasm from the Ukrainian President (a former comedian) re: the prospect of a Russian invasion on Wednesday briefly supporting core FI markets. This also came at a time when reports were doing the rounds re: the movement of Russian military vehicles into an attack formation. Fedspeak saw ’22 voter Bullard reiterate his hawkish communique from last week. Meanwhile, fellow ’22 voter, Kansas City Fed President George, told the WSJ that the central bank should consider selling bonds from its $9 trillion asset portfolio to address high inflation and guard against harmful effects that can result from raising short-term rates above long-term rates. Ultimately, cash Tsys were 5.0-7.5bp cheaper across the curve at the bell, with 2s leading the way lower as the curve bear flattened.
  • NY hours will see the release of U.S. PPI data and the Empire Manufacturing print.