EUROZONE: Timeline of key events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 17-Aug | 1000 | EU | Employment / GDP (p) |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production / HICP (f) |
| 18-Aug | 1815 | EU | ECB Schnabel Presentation at IHK Reception |
| 19-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 23-Aug | 0815 | FR | IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23-Aug | 0830 | DE | IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23-Aug | 0900 | EU | IHS Markit Services / Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 23-Aug | 1200 | EU | ECB Panetta at ECB Policy Panel at EEA Annual Congress |
| 23-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 25-Aug | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 25-Aug | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 25-Aug | 0800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Aug | 0900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25-Aug | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Remains Down
- RES 4: 1.2332 High Jun 27
- RES 3: 1.2213 High Jun 29
- RES 2: 1.2049/56 20-day EMA / High Jul 8
- RES 1: 1.1967 High Jul 13
- PRICE: 1.1886 @ 06:15 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 1.1760 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.1640 Low Mar 25 2020
- SUP 4: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020
GBPUSD continues to trade closer to recent lows and remains bearish following last week’s extension lower. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the current downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1673 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is seen at 1.2049, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a short-term correction.
EURUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable
- RES 4: 1.0503 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
- RES 3: 1.0449 High Jul 5
- RES 2: 1.0270/0359 20-day EMA / Low Jun 15
- RES 1: 1.0122/0191 High Jul 13 / High Jul 8
- PRICE: 1.0089 @ 06:10 BST Jul 18
- SUP 1: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.9863 Dec 2002 low
- SUP 4: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
The trend direction in EURUSD remains down. Support at parity and 0.9965, the base of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high, were breached last Thursday. This strengthens the current bearish case and opens 0.9944, a Fibonacci projection. Clearance of this level would expose 0.9883. Initial resistance to watch is 1.0122, the Jul 13 high. A break would highlight the possibility of a short-term correction from the base of the bear channel.
US TSYS: Futures Better Bid On Fed Exp., Market Limited By Japanese Holiday
TYU2 deals +0-06 ahead of London hours, printing 118-26+, 0-03 off its session peak, although volume is sub-par running at ~35K lots, with the illiquidity inked to a Japanese national holiday and the resultant close of cash Tsys until London trade limiting wider activity.
- Tsy futures drew support from Friday’s Fedpeak (where only ’22 voter Bullard pointed to the need for a potential 100bp rate hike later this month) and a weekend article from WSJ Fed whisperer Timiraos, who flagged that a 75bp rate hike is the most likely scenario come the end of the central bank’s July meeting.
- Continued COVID worry in China, alongside an early downtick in crude oil futures, also fed into the early bid, although a subsequent recovery in the latter, alongside an uptick in e-minis & Chinese equities (which benefitted from the hope of apparent impending support for Chinese property developers, per weekend press reports surrounding comments from a CBIRC official) limited the early bid, with Tsy futures operating off of best levels into European hours as a result.
- Looking ahead, only second tier domestic data is due later today, while the Fed has entered its pre-FOMC blackout period.
