LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, LEI, TIC Flows, 10Y TIPS Sale

Sep-18 10:28

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* US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate) * 09/18 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (263k, 240k) * 09/1...

Historical bullets

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support

Aug-19 10:27
  • RES 4: 113-23   76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
  • RES 3: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off 
  • RES 2: 112-23   High May 1 
  • RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
  • PRICE:‌‌ 111-19+ @ 11:16 BST Aug 19
  • SUP 1: 111-10+ 50-day EMA         
  • SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
  • SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
  • SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

The underlying bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact, supported by the recent clearance of 112-12+, the Jul 1 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 112-23, the May 1 high and the next important resistance. Above 112-23, retracement levels are layered between 113-07 and 113-23. Key support is 110-08+, the low on Jul 15 and 16. First key support is yet to be tested at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low.

BUNDS: Buxl leads the recovery off the Lows in Bonds

Aug-19 10:25
  • The German Bund is back at the 129.00 Figure, the 2.80% Yield resistance has again held today, printed a 2.784% high.
  • The German 30yr Buxl is the contract that has led Bonds, the Yield traded to its highest level since July 2011 earlier, and the Futures has bounced off the 113.00 level since.
  • There's been some interest in fading the 5s/30s away from the 103.00 level, printed a 102.99 high, but settling down to 102.10 now.

LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: House Starts/Permits, Fed VC Bowman

Aug-19 10:21
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 08/19 0830 Housing Starts (1.321M, 1.297M), MoM (4.6%, -1.8%)
  • 08/19 0830 Building Permits (1.393M, 1.386M), MoM (-0.1%, -0.5%)
  • 08/19 1000 Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV
  • 08/19 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
  • 08/19 1410 Fed VC Bowman blockchain symposium, WY
  • Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI