RIKSBANK: Thedeen: Bar To Rate Change Has Increased
The Riksbank's November meeting minutes have been released: https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/dagordningar--protokoll/protokoll/penningpolitiskt/engelska/2025/minutes-of-the-monetary-policy-decision-on-4-november-2025.pdf
Governor Thedeen suggests his bar for supporting a rate move in either direction has increased. A reminder that in an interview with the MNI Policy Team last week, he suggested the current 1.75% policy rate is likely stimulative, despite its being near the bottom of the estimated range for the neutral rate
- “My assessment is still that such monetary policy [i.e. remaining at 1.75% for “some time to come”] represents a reasonable trade-off between the risk of continued high inflation and the risk of inflation falling below the target. Furthermore, the proposed monetary policy will give continued support to the economic recovery, and thereby to a slightly stronger labour market.”
- He notes that “My threshold for a change in the policy rate in the near term, as expressed in the interest rate path, is somewhat higher now than it was previously”
- Thedeen outlines two alternative scenarios in his remarks. Such scenarios are usually presented in quarterly MPR reports:
- In a "dovish" scenario: “Despite positive signals about the economy, it is feasible that demand in the coming quarters will be unexpectedly low”,,,” continued weak economic developments would keep unemployment elevated, which, in a low-inflation environment, could justify a somewhat looser monetary policy stance.
- In a "hawkish" scenario: “If we were to be hit by new shocks, there is a risk that the economy today, via inflation expectations and companies’ pricing behaviour, is more sensitive than before to such supply problems and that the impact on inflation would therefore be greater. If, as in this scenario, inflation was to remain elevated and the outlook were to deteriorate further owing to continued supply-side shocks, this might warrant a higher policy rate.”
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
