ASIA FX: THB Outperforms With Gold Surge, Oil Sensitive Plays Weaker
Jun-13 03:52
In South East FX markets, the USD is higher across the board, albeit to varying degrees. THB is outperforming, little changed at this stage versus end Thursday levels. PHP is down around 0.40%, while in India, spot INR is off 0.60%, with higher oil prices a factor. MYR is also down though, which tends to have a positive terms of trade relationship with higher oil prices. Equity markets in the region are all weaker, except for the Philippines.
- USD/THB got to lows of 32.33 earlier, but we sit back in the 32.45/50 region now. The spike in gold prices (+1.3%) on market risk aversion in response to the Israel attacks on Iran, has likely help baht outperform.
- USD/INR is up 0.60%, last close to 86.10. This is fresh highs in the pair back to mid April. Sensitivity to the oil price spike (Brent last up around 9.3%) a little factor.
- USD/SGD is modestly higher, close to 1.2820, so outperforming some other trends in the region and higher beta FX like AUD and NZD.
- USD/IDR is back close to 16300, off around 0.4% in IDR terms. USD/PHP has pushed back above 56.00, last close to 56.15, off around 0.50% for the session. The oil price spill could be in play as well for PHP.
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STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing Firms Since CPI But Much Less Than AUS
May-14 03:42
RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps firmer across meetings today, leaving rates 2–14bps above levels seen prior to the Q1 CPI release on April 17.
- Q1 New Zealand CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.9% q/q, lifting the annual rate to 2.5% from 2.2% in Q4. Both tradeables and non-tradeables components contributed to the upside surprise.
- However, the RBNZ’s preferred measure of underlying inflation—the sectoral factor model—edged lower to 2.9% in Q1, down from a downwardly revised 3.0% in Q4. This marks the lowest print since Q2 2021 and places core inflation just under the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band.
- In Australia, Q1 headline and underlying CPI exceeded expectations by 0.1pp, although the trimmed mean slowed to 2.9% y/y, falling within the RBA’s target band for the first time since Q4 2021.
- For comparison, RBA-dated OIS pricing is now 4–40bps firmer than pre-Q1 CPI levels recorded on April 30.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Current vs. Pre-CPI Levels (%)
Source: MNI - Market News / Bloomberg
CHINA: Bond Futures Lower in Morning Trade
May-14 03:04
- China's bond futures are all lower in morning trading.
- The 10YR future is lower by -0.10 at 108.56 and has breached the 50-day EMA of 108.59. The next key level below is the 100-day EMA of 108.32.
- The 2YR future is lower by -0.05 at 102.46 and remains firmly below all major moving averages. The nearest being the 20-day EMA at 102.46.
- CGB bond yields are stable with the CGB 10YR at 1.66%
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Insight On German FDI Into CHina
May-14 02:52
A leading German industry leader in China provides insight into German FDI. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
