ASIA FX: THB & MYR Outperform, IDR & PHP Weaker
In South East Asia FX markets, trends have been mixed, with aggregate moves not large at this stage. PHP and IDR has lost further ground, while THB and MYR have modestly outperformed. USD/SGD is up a touch despite a decent export beat.
- USD/THB is back close to 32.46, down around 0.25% versus end Wednesday levels. Gold prices are down slightly, but remain within striking distance of $3400. The authorities are aiming to break the firm link between gold and THB. Local equities have surged, +2.85% at this stage, another potential positive for the local FX. USD/THB is still above recent lows near 32.30 though.
- USD/MYR is relatively steady, holding near 4.2450 in latest dealings. USD/SGD is up a touch to 1.2850, in line with the majors losing ground versus the USD. Highs yesterday were close to 1.2875. Earlier we had stronger than expected export data (+13.0%y/y, versus +5.0% forecast).
- USD/IDR is up through 16320 in latest dealings, fresh highs since late June. We haven't seen a return of portfolio inflows, at this stage, in either the equity or debt space, despite the trade deal announced with the US.
- USD/PHP also continues to rise, last in the 57.15/20 region, which pits us through the 200-day EMA resistance point.
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ASIA STOCKS: Geopolitics Dragging Markets Lower
Major bourses in Asia were lower today as the uncertainty in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, in a day light on economic news in the region. Korea's KOSPI had closed in on 3,000 early in the trading day only for a complete turnaround and head lower, following the lead from elsewhere.
- In China, the Hang Seng drifted marginally lower by -0.13% and remains down by -0.55% over the last five trading days. The CSI 300 followed, down -0.15%, the Shanghai Composite down -0.19% and the Shenzhen Composite is down a mere --0.04% and is barely positive over the last five trading days.
- The KOSPI is down -0.34% in what was a complete turnaround having rallied early. It remains one of the strongest in the region over the last five trading days up over 2%
- The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.39% following yesterday's modest gains.
- The Jakarta Composite is up by +0.70% taking back yesterday's losses of -0.68% to stem four consecutive days of losses.
- The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is up +0.28% whilst the PSEi in the Philippines has gained +0.53%
- The NIFTY 50 in India is down -0.36% given back from yesterday's gains of +0.92%
INDONESIA: MNI BI Preview-June 2025: Consecutive Cuts Unlikely
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- Bank Indonesia's (BI) decision is announced on June 18 and it is likely to keep rates at 5.5% after cutting them 25bp in May, although 9 out of 31 analysts on Bloomberg expect another 25bp reduction.
- With the focus remaining on the currency, we believe that BI will be cautious regarding back-to-back easing given that the Fed is widely expected to be on hold this month and it isn’t expected to resume cutting until later this year.
- With the economy slowing and inflation “controlled”, BI is likely to retain its easing bias, be cautious and look for opportunities to ease further going forward depending on global and Fed developments.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Continues To Struggle
The BBDXY has had a range of 1201.63 - 1203.68 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1201.”FX traders will be impressed at the PBOC’s confidence in the yuan, despite all the uncertainty around the Middle East. Meanwhile, US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, including renminbi.”(BBG)
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1543 - 1.1567, Asia is currently trading 1.1565. EUR has rejected the move above 1.1600 but dips should continue to find demand, first support back towards the 1.1400 area then 1.1100/1200. EUR/USD looked to have broken the pivotal 1.1500 area last week, this needs to be sustained to signal a larger move higher.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3558 - 1.3580, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3575. The GBP continues to hold above its Weekly pivot around 1.3500, it needs a catalyst for the move higher to regain momentum. First support seen back towards 1.3400/50.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1787 - 7.1860, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1746. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1820. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower.
- Cross asset : SPX -0.40%, Gold $3390, US 10-Year 4.436%, BBDXY 1201, Crude oil $72.18
Data/Events : Germany ZEW Survey
Fig 1: USD/CNH Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
