THAILAND: Thaksin Shinawatra En Route To Thailand, PM Anutin Takes Office
Former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra confirmed that her father and Pheu Thai Party's (PTP's) de facto leader Thaksin Shiawatra would return to the country today ahead of an imminent court ruling on his '14th floor' case, as their rival Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) leader Anutin Charnvirakul received royal assent for his appointment to the position of Prime Minister.
- Thaksin's unexpected trip to Dubai last week triggered speculation that he might have been mulling an escape, but the veteran politician is on his way back to the country. His private jet is the most tracked flight on FlightRadar again and is scheduled to touch down in Bangkok within a few minutes.
- The patriarch of the Pheu Thai Party is due to hear a verdict on the '14th floor case' in which he is accused of faking illness to avoid serving time in prison. We have covered high-profile legal cases of political significant at length in an analysis piece a few weeks back - see here.
- This comes on the back of recent political turmoil, which saw Paetongtarn removed from office and eventually replaced by BJT's Anutin, who took office over the weekend. He reaffirmed his commitment to calling a snap election within four months, which was part of his confidence-and-supply deal with the People's Party (PPLE).
- The PTP has continued to try and block Anutin's bid for power, with around 60 MPs seeking to file a petition with the Constitutional Court to rule on the MP status of Anutin and PPLE leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. The PTP subsequently withdrew the petition to revise some of its contents.
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Recovers With Treasuries
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 14:34 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed a poor NFP print. This keeps Aussie 10-year futures toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
SECURITY: Trump To Sign Trilateral Peace Accord With Armenia/Azerbaijan Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign a trilateral peace agreement with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. LIVESTREAM The event will provide another opportunity for Trump to style himself as peacemaker, after touting success in brokering peace deals between Rwanda/Congo, Cambodia/Thailand, and India/Pakistan.
- The accord aims to resolve a decade-long dispute over the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh - a breakaway Azerbaijani province that was under de facto Armenian control from the dissolution of the Soviet Union until a 2020 war.
- Trump described the meeting on Truth Social as a “historic peace summit,” noting that the US will also sign “Bilateral Agreements [to] fully unlock the potential of the South Caucasus Region.”
- White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters that Trump would sign deals with both Armenia and Azerbaijan on energy, technology, economic cooperation, border security, infrastructure and trade.
- A White House official said: "It's about the entire region, and [the leaders] know that that region is known to be safer and more prosperous with President Trump."
- Reuters reports that the US will have development rights to build transportation links in the strategic Zangezur Corridor, a mountainous stretch of Armenian territory between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
- Politico notes: “But whether this is just a photo opportunity or a lasting end to a conflict that has undermined stability in a region dominated by Russia and Iran will depend on whether the US can address several key challenges.”
FED: Balance Sheet Runoff Continues At Steady $20B/Month Pace (2/2)
Fed asset holdings were little changed in the past week. SOMA runoff totaled $2.8B (composed of $4.2B less nominal Tsy holdings and $1.4B more TIPS), with emergency lending/liquidity facilities $0.7B lower.
- Over the last 4 weeks, the $20B/monthly expected QT pace was roughly adhered to: MBS fell $18B, with Treasury net holdings down around $2B (a fall in TIPS holdings offsetting a slight rise in nominals).
- Discount window usage accounted for the fall in lending facility usage this week; takeup is now down to $4.9B, down $1.3B in the last month and down from the 1-year high of $6.4B set in July which looks to have been a temporary blip higher.
