EM ASIA CREDIT: Thai Oil (TOPTB): USD PerpNC5.25 mandate fair value

• After the sudden contraction in October, November exports rebounded strongly topping expectations.  
• November exports expanded +5.9%, above estimates of +4.0% and beating October's result of -1.1%
• The decline in October is attributed to shipments being brought forward ahead of the Trump Xi meeting, shipments being front loaded ahead of the holiday period and base effect. 
• Imports missed estimates with a rise of +1.9%, versus estimates of 3.0% and prior of 1.0%
• This left China with a trade balance ahead of estimates at US$111.6bn at a time when French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.
• Despite some signs of a softening in economic data, the strength in exports will remain highly supportive of China achieving it's stated 5% GDP growth for 2025 and likely dampen calls for further monetary policy stimulus in the near term.  

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are little changed, +2 compared to settlement levels.

• MNI Techs Team – Futures prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Friday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signalling any broader reversal. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.
• MNI - Japan's Q3 GDP fell 0.6% q/q, or an annualised -2.3%, compared with the initial estimate of -0.4% q/q, or -1.8% annualised, as capital investment and public spending were revised down, although private consumption was revised slightly higher. Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of Japan’s GDP, was revised up to 0.2% from 0.1%, though its contribution remained unchanged at 0.1 pp.
• Cash US tsys are slightly richer in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest sell-off.
• Cash JGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 20-year underperforming. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bps higher at 1.956% a fresh cycle high.
• Swap rates are flat to 3bps higher, with a steeper curve.

• CHINA JAN-NOV EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
• CHINA JAN-NOV IMPORTS +0.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
• CHINA JAN-NOV TRADE SURPLUS +CNY7.71 TRLN: MNI CAL