EM ASIA CREDIT: Thai Oil: Capex funding includes perps
(TOPTB, Baa3neg/BBB-neg/NR)
Perpetual bond issuance confirmed, neutral for spreads.
Thai Oil reiterated on its earnings call today that funding for its Clean Fuel Project (capex around USD 1.5bn) will likely require additional financing via a perpetual bond, which could be launched this year or early 2026 depending on market conditions. Capex is expected to peak in 2026 at about USD 1bn.
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BOBL TECHS: (U5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 118.060 High Jun 20
- RES 2: 117.980 High Jul 4
- RES 1: 117.659 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.330 @ 06:09 BST Jul 14
- SUP 1: 117.200 Low Jul 11
- SUP 2: 117.009 1.236 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 116.885 1.382 proj of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing
Last week’s move down in Bobl futures resulted in a breach of support at 117.530, the Jun 5 low. The break highlights a stronger reversal and cancels a recent bull theme. The move down has pierced 117.210, a 1.000 projection of the Jun 13 - 16 - 20 price swing. Clearance of this level would open the 117.000 handle. On the upside, resistance to watch is 117.659, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of it would signal a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 15-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 15-Jul | 2100 | Q1 | Mansion House: Chancellor Reeves and BOE Bailey |
| 16-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Consumer inflation report |
| 17-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 24-Jul | 0930 | Q1 | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jul | 1100 | Q1 | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Jul | 0700 | Q1 | Retail Sales |
| 28-Jul | 1100 | Q1 | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Jul | 0001 | Q1 | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29-Jul | 0930 | Q1 | BOE Lending to Individuals M4 |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Jul | 1600 | EU | ECB Cipollone At EU Parliament |
| 15-Jul | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jul | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jul | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16-Jul | 0900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Jul | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jul | ---- | EU | ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting |
| 18-Jul | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 18-Jul | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18-Jul | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 18-Jul | ---- | EU | ECB Cipollone At G20 Meeting |
| 21-Jul | 1000 | EU | EZ Quarterly GDP Third Estimate |
| 22-Jul | 0900 | EU | ECB Bank Lending Survey |
| 23-Jul | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
