EURGBP TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8781 2.236 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8768 High Nov 20 ‘23
- RES 2: 0.8624/0.8738 High Apr 21/ High Apr 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8557 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.8477 @ 15:48 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 0.8459 Low May 8
- SUP 2: 0.8432 Low Apr 4
- SUP 3: 0.8415 76.4% retracement of the Mar 28 - Apr 11 rally
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
EURGBP has this week briefly pierced support at the 50-day EMA - at 0.8470. A clear break of the average would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 0.8415, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible the move down since Apr 11, is a correction. A clear reversal would open 0.8738, the Apr 11 high and a bull trigger. First key resistance to watch is 0.8624, the Apr 21 high.
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EURGBP TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: 0.8715 The Dec 28 ‘23 high
- RES 3: 0.8700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8683 1.764 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 0.8663 High Apr 09
- PRICE: 0.8649 @ 15:37 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: 0.8470/0.8415 Low Apr 7 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8377 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
EURGBP continues to appreciate as the impulsive bull rally accelerates further. A key resistance at 0.8625, the Aug 8 ‘24 high, has been cleared. The breach highlights another important technical break and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8683 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 0.8415, the 20-day EMA. Note that the cross is in extreme overbought territory, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
STIR: Euribor Outperforms Amidst Questions Whether EU Included In Lower Tariffs
- With question marks over whether the EU is included or not in the Trump’s 90-day pause and lower reciprocal rate of 10% after today’s retaliation (but with first effective not until Apr 15), we note that ERM5 has slid ~9.5 ticks since Trump’s post vs an 18 tick drop for SFRM5 (albeit having rallied into the news).
- There has since been increasingly large underperformance in US rates but with little further change in Euribor futures.
- SOFR implied yields are currently as much as 26bp higher on the day in mid-2026 contracts, dragging CORRA futures for example with them (22bps) whereas Euribor yields are stuck around 8-9bp.
- It is however ambiguous with further clarification awaited.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 2Y Sale
-6,800 TUM5 103-21.25, sell through 103-22 post time bid at 1339:03ET, DV01 $255,000. The 2Y contract continues to sink (103-16.88 last (-13) after Trump tweet on upping China tariff tp 125% while granting 90 day pause for 75 other countries and recip tariff drop to 10%.
