EURGBP TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.8715 The Dec 28 ‘23 high       
• RES 3: 0.8700 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 0.8683 1.764 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8663 High Apr 09
• PRICE: 0.8649 @ 15:37 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 0.8470/0.8415 Low Apr 7 / 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8377 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support   
• SUP 4: 0.8299 Low Mar 5

EURGBP continues to appreciate as the impulsive bull rally accelerates further. A key resistance at 0.8625, the Aug 8 ‘24 high, has been cleared. The breach highlights another important technical break and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8683 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at 0.8415, the 20-day EMA. Note that the cross is in extreme overbought territory, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.      

• With question marks over whether the EU is included or not in the Trump’s 90-day pause and lower reciprocal rate of 10% after today’s retaliation (but with first effective not until Apr 15), we note that ERM5 has slid ~9.5 ticks since Trump’s post vs an 18 tick drop for SFRM5 (albeit having rallied into the news).
• There has since been increasingly large underperformance in US rates but with little further change in Euribor futures.
• SOFR implied yields are currently as much as 26bp higher on the day in mid-2026 contracts, dragging CORRA futures for example with them (22bps) whereas Euribor yields are stuck around 8-9bp.
• It is however ambiguous with further clarification awaited.

-6,800 TUM5 103-21.25, sell through 103-22 post time bid at 1339:03ET, DV01 $255,000. The 2Y contract continues to sink (103-16.88 last (-13) after Trump tweet on upping China tariff tp 125% while granting 90 day pause for 75 other countries and recip tariff drop to 10%.