EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support
- RES 4: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.1054 High May 8
- RES 2: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.0934 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 1.0867 @ 16:18 BST Jul 6
- SUP 1: 1.0824/04 50.0% of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally / Low Jun 15
- SUP 2: 1.0779 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally
- SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
- SUP 4: 1.0724 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally
EURUSD is trading lower and is testing support at 1.0835, the Jun 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, the move lower highlights a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0858, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. This has opened 1.0804, the Jun 15 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.0934, the Jul 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.
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EURUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
- RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
- RES 2: 1.0829 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.0789 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0688 @ 16:24 BST Jun 6
- SUP 1: 1.0667/35 Low Jun 6 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
- SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
- SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support
EURUSD short-term gains are considered corrective and the downtrend remains intact. Fresh trend lows last week reinforce bearish conditions and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Note too that 1.0653 has been breached, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 rally and this opens 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0789, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.
OPTIONS: Mostly Upside Tuesday Expressed Via Call Structures
Tuesday's Europe rates / bond options flow included:
- DUN3 105.50/105.80/106.10c fly, bought for 6.5 in 2.5k
- ERU3 96.37/96.50/96.62c fly, bought for 1.25 in 22k total
- 0RZ3 97.25/97.62cs, bought for 12.5 in 10k
- SFIN3 95/95.10cs vs 94.40/94.30ps, bought the cs for half in 4k
STIR: Blue Jun'23 SOFR Call Spread
- -8,000 3QM3 96.87/97.25 call spds 8.5 vs. 96.87/0.40%
