JPY: Testing session low against the USD, EUR, GBP and AUD
Apr-04 07:21
- Tiny moves so far, but with Tnotes (TYM4) hovering at its session low, USDJPY slowly edges higher, to test its intraday high.
- Main focus is course on the 152.00, which has been well defended, now trading at 151.73.
- The Yen also test session low against the EUR, GBP and AUD.
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BUNDS: Pushing towards 133.00 on the cash open
Mar-05 07:13
- Bund saw the June contract as the most active overnight, but this has not been the case for Bobl or Schatz, the March will still be the one quoted today, but should change by Tomorrow.
- March Bund, similar to Treasuries trades in a tight range, with Real Money on the sidelines ahead of Fed Powell (wed/thu), the ECB (thu) and NFP/AHE (fri).
- Resistance in Bund is at 133.40, followed by 133.76.
- Small support moves up to 132.70, but better is seen at 132.33, followed by 132.00.
- It is s a busier day on the data front, with PMIs, although will be final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, EU PPI and Italy final GDP are also scheduled.
- On the other side of the Pond, sees US Factory orders and ISM services, while Durable goods will be final reading.
- SUPPLY: UK £3.75bn 2027 (Equates to 38.3k Gilt) could weigh, Austria 2030, 2034, Germany €4bn Bobl (equates to 37.4k Bobl) could weigh.
- SYNDICATION: Germany 30yr and Croatia 10yr Benchmarks.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Barr (x2).
BUNDS: /SWAPS: Commerzbank: ASW De-Anchoring
Mar-05 07:08
Commerzbank write “one should not overlook the ongoing Bund cheapening vs. swaps, which continues in the long-end after 30y Bunds took out the 0bp support.”
- “The DBR Aug54 is now trading at double-digit spreads over swaps.”
- “The front end is somewhat better anchored by repo valuations, where the potential for further cheapening is limited near €STR/depo.”
- “For ultralongs, however, the switch from a scarce to abundant supply regime can be more meaningful and valuations are also exposed to global (non-Bund specific) developments.”
- “Despite all the structural differences, the U.S. Treasury curve serves as a reminder that top-rated govy yields can trade at 70bp above swaps.”
- “A Trump confirmation after super-Tuesday may add to the challenging longer-term supply/demand prospects.”
- “Long-end Bunds should be better protected by the debt brake, but also owing to their unique role as top € safe asset and the still limited free float.”
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Mar-05 06:54
- RES 4: 166.46 1.236 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27 and Feb 26
- PRICE: 163.25 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 162.08 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 160.84 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
- SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and key support
The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and the recovery from last week’s low reinforces current conditions. Support to watch lies at 162.08, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.84. With a bull cycle still in play, attention is on resistance at 163.72, the Nov 27 high (tested) ahead of key resistance at 164.30, the Nov 16 high.
