SOUTH AFRICA: Tensions With US Dominate Post-SONA Debate
- The post-SONA debate in parliament was dominated by South African-US relations, which took a sharp turn for the worse under new President Donald Trump. The US leader cut all aid to South Africa, ostensibly over the adoption of the Expropriation Act and the sub-Saharan nation's genocide case against Israel. This has inspired concerns that the stand-off could spill over into trade relations, threatening South Africa's preferential access to US markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Ramaphosa refused to meet with Solidarity and AfriForum, who have been a key force calling on the US to increase pressure on South Africa over the Expropriation Act.
- Insiders told TimesLIVE that there are growing calls within the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party for the resignation of Secretary General Floyd Shivambu, who recently jumped ship from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). A separate report by Daily Maverick noted that Shivambu has been trying to increase his control over party operations, to the frustration of senior officials who joined before him. This comes after MK Party leader Jacob Zuma ordered his daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla MP, to apologise Shivambu for publicly saying that he was "the worst thing that happened to the party" earlier this week.
- TimesLive reported that South Africa has been transporting additional troops and materiel to the DRC, where several thousands of its peacekeepers are currently stranded, refusing to bow to pressure to withdraw amid the advances of Rwandan-backed M23 rebels.
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USD: Further upside continuation in the Dollar
- The Dollar was on the front foot in G10, only the Yen was holding onto small gains, albeit by just 0.16%.
- The Dollar is seeing a fresh bid as Europe Joins the session, at a new intraday high against GBP, EUR, SEK, INR, ZAR, MXN, NZD, and the NOK.
- Goldman Sachs has updated its EURUSD forecast and targets parity in 3 Months, {r2} While NAB look for Cable to trade below 1.2100 in the coming days.
- Next immediate support in the EURUSD is right here at 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg.
- For Cable, it is now testing 1.2126 Low Jan 13, and further downside momentum will open to 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Breaches Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 5966.50 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- PRICE: 5842.25 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 5831.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the contract is trading lower today. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirms the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and opens 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. First pivot resistance is seen at 5996.50, the 50-day EMA
GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2698.0 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $2688.8 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: $2642.1 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal is holding on to last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important short-term resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2642.1, the 50-day EMA.
