EU COMMUNICATIONS: Telenor Q4 Results
TELNO
In line operational performance; cash flow strong but dividends resulted in a tick higher in leverage.
- Q4 service revs +1% (in line). FY Nordics organic was +3.6% vs. 3-4% guidance.
- Q4 EBITDA +2% (in line). FY organic was +3.5% vs. ~3-4% guidance.
- Q4 CapEx/Sales 19.1%. FY Nordics was 17.1% against <17% guidance.
- Q4 CFO NOK 8.1bn (+26% vs. cons). FY FCF NOK 11.4bn (+15% vs. cons) vs. 9.5-10bn guide.
- Leverage higher though to 2.4x from 2.3x at Q4 and 2.2x at Q423 vs. 1.8-2.3x target.
- FY25: Group LSD org EBITDA growth, NOK ~13bn FCF (cons: 11.4bn). Proposed DPS in line.
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SILVER TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Downtrend
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.507 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $30.184 @ 08:07 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium EUR 10y Benchmark Guidance
- EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (June 22, 2035) MS+68 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act, short first
- Issuer: Kingdom of Belgium Government Bond (BGB)
- Format: Reg S CAT1, dematerialized, senior unsecured, 144a eligible
- Settlement: Jan. 14, 2025
- Denoms: 0.01 x 0.01
- ISIN: BE0000363722
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), CA-CIB, HSBC, JPM, MS
(As per Bloomberg).
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4305 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.4322/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4155 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and a move down appears corrective - for now. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4322, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4155, the 50-day EMA.
