FED: Team Transitory Seemingly In The Minority On FOMC

• RES 4: 166.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24         
• RES 1: 165.29 High May 13 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 164.98 @ 16:03 BST Jun 9 
• SUP 1: 163.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 162.76 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Friday’s gains resulted in a print above key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction.   

• Crude prices are higher today, as risk sentiment has remained supported by US-China trade talks in London.
• Ahead of the talks, President Trump authorised Treasury Secretary Bessent's team to negotiate away recent restrictions on the sale of a wide variety of technology and other products to China, according to people familiar with the matter.
• WTI Jul 25 is up by 1.2% at $65.4/bbl.
• WTI futures traded higher last week, resulting in a clear break of resistance around the 50-day EMA. The climb signals scope for an extension towards $65.82, the Apr 4 high, followed by $71.10, the Apr 2 high and key resistance.
• It is still possible that the recovery since early May is a correction, and support to watch lies at $59.74, the May 30 low.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has risen by 0.7% to $3,334/oz, amid a moderately weak US dollar.
• A bullish theme in gold remains intact and a continuation of gains would refocus attention on $3,435.6, the May 7 high.
• Elsewhere, copper has also rebounded by 1.4% to $492/lb, as the red metal remains supported by a drop in inventories and disruptions to supply.
• Copper futures breached resistance at $498.25, the Apr 23 high last week, undermining the recent bearish theme and signalling scope for an extension higher near-term. This has opened $509.85, a Fibonacci retracement.
• On the downside, a pivot support is seen at $474.84, the 50-day EMA

• +10,000 TYN5 108.5 puts, 3 vs. 110-04.5/0.05%