GOLD: TD Sec Think Earlier Breakout Not Fundamentally Driven
Nov-13 15:41
- Gold saw renewed gains early Thursday, putting prices at the highest since the October 21 pullback. Since then prices have faded enough so that current levels would end a 6-day win streak.
- Only partial pricing for a Dec Fed cut opens up potential for a dovish turn in rates should incoming data surprise to the downside, which should prove positive for gold prices.
- However, TD Securities wrote yesterday: "OTC trading volumes continue to subside […] pointing to subsiding physical demand for London gold and silver. ETF holdings continue to subside accordingly. Open interest for CME futures, on the other hand, point to a large bid in futures markets […] CTA positioning remains largely unchanged given the algos' return engine is already firing on all cylinders. This strongly suggests the recent futures bid is associated with the technical breakout, rather than a resurgence of the forces that drove the melt-up in October"
- MNI's own technical analyst meanwhile highlights the downleg in Gold since Oct 20 appears to have been a correction and the move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains suggest that correction is over. A key support at the 50-day EMA, at $3910.9, is intact. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is $4264.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A stronger recovery would open $4381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
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EGBS: OAT Futures Inching Higher As PS National Assembly Leader Speaks
Oct-14 15:41
"FRENCH SOCIALIST LEADER VALLAUD: WE HEAR A SIGN THAT YOU HAVE LISTENED TO US" Reuters
OAT futures are inching higher once again as comments from PS National Assembly leader Boris Vallaud start to filter in. The Socialists haven’t confirmed if they will support (or at least, not censure) the Government yet, but that first headline is optimistic. PS First Secretary Olivier Faure will speak on TF1 at 20:00CET.
- Futures are currently +62 ticks at 122.71, looking to retest the September 5 high of 122.76.
- The best volumes of the session unsurprisingly came as Lecornu announced details of the pension suspension, with ~30k lots going through between 1420-1430BST.
- For now, cumulative daily volumes in OATs are still below those seen last Monday (when Lecornu’s resigned from his first stint as PM).
FED: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.685%(ALLOT 88.60%)
Oct-14 15:32
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.685%(ALLOT 88.60%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 21.90% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.13% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.97% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.95
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.845%(ALLOT 56.56%)
Oct-14 15:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.845%(ALLOT 56.56%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.81% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.20% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.98% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.88
