US TSYS/SUPPLY: TD Pushes Back Coupon Upsizing Start To Nov From Aug

In the wake of the unchanged issuance guidance in the February Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, TD Securities has pushed back its expectation for Treasury's next coupon upsizing to November, from August previously: "While we think an August increase is reasonable given the deficit financing needs, Treasury's goal of being "regular and predictable" wouldn't make the current guidance consistent with changes in August."

• "Maintaining the language around keeping auction sizes unchanged against TBAC's recommendation might imply that Treasury is in no rush to decrease the share of bills outstanding and term out the debt further."
• November is very much firmly consensus among analysts.
• Jefferies concurs with the November timing, writing post-Refunding: "This is now the fourth straight quarter where Treasury has used the "several quarters" language, which suggests to us that they do not anticipate having to increase coupon sizes until at least the November 2025 Refunding. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been critical of his predecessor's reliance on short-term bill issuance, implying an intention to increase issuance in longer maturities. Today's announcement suggests that this term-out is going to take a long time to execute."