BOE: Taylor delivers dovish FT interview but nothing surprising given May vote
May-30 05:38
- External MPC member Professor Alan Taylor has given an interview with the FT (published around 2 hours ago) in which he notes his dissent in May (voting for a 50bp cut against the 25bp delivered) and that he is seeing increasing risks of the BOE's downside scenario. This shouldn't be too market moving as nothing he has said he is a surprise for him, but it reinforces his position as the second most dovish MPC member (after Dhingra). He also noted that the increase in inflation recently was "driven by one-off factors" and noted that the BOE had forecast inflation to peak later this year, but he was looking further ahead than that. He said that higher inflation is "coming out of one-time tax and administered price changes" and in contrast to Pill's concern on the labour market that pay settlement indicators were “within touching distance of sustainable wage growth.”
- When asked if he would vote for a June cut: “I’m not going to pre-emptively announce my vote, but I think I indicated in my dissent that I thought we needed to be on a lower [monetary] policy path... I’m seeing more risk piling up on the downside scenario because of global developments” with the FT citing that he then pointed to US tariff impacts "be building up over the rest of this year in terms of trade diversion and drag on growth."
- He also said that “We got a massive change in trade policy, we have a lot of uncertainty: I would focus on that as the big story” to first order.
- The full interview is available here (behind paywall).
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MNI: FRANCE Q1 FLASH GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y
Apr-30 05:30
- MNI: FRANCE Q1 FLASH GDP +0.1% Q/Q, +0.8% Y/Y
MNI: FRANCE MAR CONSUMER SPENDING -1% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y
Apr-30 05:30
- MNI: FRANCE MAR CONSUMER SPENDING -1% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE MAR CONSUMER MANUF SPENDING -0.9% M/M, -2.1% Y/Y
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trading At Its Recent Highs
Apr-30 05:29
- RES 4: 5341.00 High Mar 27
- RES 3: 5263.01 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg
- RES 2: 5165.00 High Apr 3
- RES 1: 5150.00 High Apr 28
- PRICE: 5119.00 @ 06:14 BST Apr 30
- SUP 1: 4959.00/4812.00 Low Apr 23 / 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 4664.00 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 4444.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5102.56. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal.
