EU TRANSPORTATION: TAP Headline
Dec-20 07:35
"*PORTUGAL TO PREPARE TERMS OF TAP SALE DURING 1Q 2025: EXPRESSO" - bbg
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bullish
Nov-20 07:27
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5952.00 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 20
- SUP 1: 5855.00 Low Nov 19
- SUP 2: 5834.60 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The latest move lower in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5834.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6053.25, Nov 11 high.
UK DATA: Inflation data marginally higher overall, maybe worth 2-4bp for SONIA
Nov-20 07:26
- Overall, this data can be viewed as marginally higher than expected. But there shouldn't be too much in the way of changes to monpol expectations.
- As we noted after the testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee yesterday we don't see a near-term domestic macro driver that can really change the course of quarterly cuts for at least February and May. And then it will be the re-setting of annual services CPI prices as well as the strength of wage growth that will determine the pace of cuts.
- Following the Budget there is too much uncertainty from the employer NIC increase and the NLW (national living wage) increase, which we are concerned could see inflation linger higher than the BOE's forecasts for longer.
- In terms of market reaction, GBPUSD is around 25 pips higher than prior to the data and we would expect a bit less to be priced into the SONIA curve on the open (may 2-4bps less of cuts over the next 6 months or so.
- Another key event will be Ramsden's speech on monpol at 16:00GMT.
BUNDS: Edging lower post Cash open
Nov-20 07:22
- The German Bund has edged below Yesterday's low, fully reversing the Safe Haven price action seen Yesterday's following escalation in War risks.
- While the UK CPI was a beat, helping the Pound higher, the German contract actually jumped 10 ticks, with the move driven by the Cash open, ignoring the UK Data as the CBs (fed, BoE, ECB) rate outlook look to diverge.
- The German contract has since reversed the early bid post Cash open, to break through session low and the 132.00 figure. this should see the German 10yr Yield, when it is quoted, back above Yesterday's high of 2.355%.
- Support in Bund are at 131.68, 131.28, and 131.66 (circa 2.50% in Yield).
- Small resistance moves down to 132.54.
- There are no Tier 1 Data left for the Session, ECB will Publish Euro area Wages.
- SUPPLY: Greece €250mln 2034, too small, won't impact Bund, Germany 2052, 2053 (Equates combined 19.9k Buxl) will weigh, US Sells $16bn of 20yr.
SPEAKERS: ECB Escriva, Guindos, Stournaras, Makhlouf, BoE Ramsden, Fed Barr, Cook, Bowman, Collins.
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