EU HEALTHCARE: Takeda (TACHEM: Baa1/BBB+) Yen issuance

Finland has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0bln of the following at its auction next Tuesday, May 13:

• E1-2bln Nov 13, 2025 RFTB
• E1-2bln Feb 13, 2026 RFTB

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 119.95 @ Close May 6 
• SUP 1: 119.39 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 118.09 Low Apr 14       
• SUP 3: 117.28 Low Apr 10 
• SUP 4: 116.06 Low Apr 9    

BTP futures remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.39, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a deeper pullback would unwind this trend condition.

Swedish April flash inflation was lower than analyst forecasts: Headline CPIF at 2.3% Y/Y vs 2.29% Riksbank, 2.4% consensus and CPIF ex-energy at 3.1% Y/Y vs 3.15% Riksbank, 3.2% consensus.

• Consensus for CPIF ex-energy was skewed towards a firmer 3.2/3.3% reading, so the downward surprise is notable. However, there are no details provided in the flash release.
• As such, this shouldn’t have a major impact on today’s Riksbank Executive Board meeting and tomorrow’s policy rate decision. On the margin, it may increase the likelihood of a dovish guidance tilt, opening the door to a cut later this year conditional on downside growth risks materialising (which is our expectation).
• The policy rate is firmly expected to be held at 2.25%.
• EURSEK is up 0.15% following the release, but NOKSEK has already unwound the initial 0.20% move lower.