ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Sees Huge Inflow on Back of TSMC News.
Following positive news coming out of Taiwan’s best known stock TSMC, Taiwan enjoyed one of the larger inflows it has had for some time, with South Korean following suit.
- South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$355m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$1,007m. 2025 to date flows are -$4,481m. The 5-day average is +$201m, the 20-day average is -$160m and the 100-day average of -$106m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$910m yesterday, with total outflows of -$876m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$14,298. The 5-day average is -$175m, the 20-day average of -$613m and the 100-day average of -$200m.
- India: Saw outflows of -$119m as of the 19th, with a total outflow of -$724m over the previous 5 days. YTD outflows stand at -$16,396m. The 5-day average is -$145m, the 20-day average of -$248m and the 100-day average of -$204m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$30m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$398m. YTD flows are negative at -$1,883m. The 5-day average is -$80m, the 20-day average is -$60m the 100-day average of -$37m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$84m yesterday, totaling -$121m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,021m. The 5-day average is -$24m, the 20-day average of -$41m the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$65m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$304m. YTD flows stand at -$1,908m. The 5-day average is -$61m, the 20-day average of -$51m the 100-day average of -$35m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of +$3m yesterday, with net inflows of +$28m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$198m. The 5-day average is +$6m, the 20-day average of -$1m the 100-day average of -$7m.
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JAPAN DATA: Core Machine Orders Weaker Than Forecast
Other Japan data released showed core machine orders for Dec weaker than forecast. We fell 1.2% m/m, against a 0.5% forecast and 3.4% prior. In y/y terms we printed 4.3% (against a 7.5% forecast and 10.3% prior).
- We saw weakness for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders. Manufacturing was still positive y/y, albeit just.
- The chart below overlays core machine orders against Japan Capex (ex software spend). The softer machine order read is hinting at a slightly weaker capex backdrop, but arguably we need to see a firmer downtrend in machine orders to be more confident in such a call.
- Note we get Q4 capex data on March 4.
Fig 1: Japan Core Machine Order & Capex (Ex Software) Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
STIR: RBNZ Dated OIS Pricing Slightly Softer Ahead Of RBNZ Decision
RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today, ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision.
- The RBNZ decision is widely expected to cut rates 50bp again to 3.75%. Revised staff forecasts will also be published with the decision at 1200 AEDT/1400 NZDT and Governor Orr’s press conference taking place at 1300 AEDT/1500 NZDT.
- All 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 50bp rate cut, and the RBNZ shadow board recommends 50bp of easing.
- Notably, OIS pricing is 2–15bps firmer than pre-Q4 Labour Market data levels from February 4.
- Nevertheless, 49bps of easing is priced for today, with a cumulative 115bps by November 2025.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. Yesterday (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Jun-35 Auction Shows More Demand
Today’s auction showed strong pricing for ACGBs, with the weighted average yield coming in 0.63bps below prevailing mid-yields, according to Yieldbroker. Additionally, the cover ratio rose to 4.1437x from an already robust 4.000x at the previous auction.
- As noted in our preview, the current yield was approximately 10bps higher than at the prior auction, likely contributing to the robust demand. Improved sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds over recent weeks, along with a steeper 3s/10s yield curve, also likely supported the auction’s success.
- Post-auction, both the cash line and XM are slightly cheaper.
