ASIA STOCKS: Taiwan Equity Inflows Stay Positive, Momentum Improves For Thailand

Q1 GDP prints on Thursday June 19 and is Bloomberg consensus is forecasting the production-based measure to rise 0.7% q/q again bringing the annual rate to -0.8%, higher than forecast by the RBNZ in May. The central bank is expecting a rise of 0.4% q/q. Activity at the start of 2025 was likely boosted by the agricultural and manufacturing sectors with exports supporting expenditure-based growth. With rates now in the “neutral zone” and RBNZ Governor Hawkesby saying the MPC doesn’t have a bias, and especially if GDP prints stronger than it expects, the RBNZ may be on hold on July 9.

• Forecasts range from 0.4% to 0.8% q/q but the major local banks are all in line with consensus projecting a 0.7% q/q rise.
• This data is dated as it covers the period before key US tariffs were announced and includes frontloading of exports to the US to beat any duties. The resultant heightened uncertainty makes the outlook very clouded and export growth is vulnerable.
• On a positive note, there are signs that NZ’s construction sector has begun to recover helped by 225bp of easing. 

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond, issue #TB145. The line was last sold on 2 May 2025 for A$1200mn. Bidding is likely to be shaped by several key factors: 

• The current yield for this bond is approximately the same as the previous auction, notably about 50bps below the high recorded in early November 2024.
• The 3/10 yield curve is also around the same level as the previous auction but sits around 20bps below its recent high.
• Sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds remains cautious, which may temper demand.
• On the other hand, the inclusion of the Jun-35 line in the XM basket may lend support to demand.
• Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100 AEST.

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond, issue #TB145. The line was last sold on 2 May 2025 for A$1200mn. 

• The sale drew an average yield of 4.2457%, at a high yield of 4.2475% and was covered 2.7500x. There were 33 bidders, 17 of which were successful and 8 were allocated in full. The amount allotted at the highest yield as a percentage of the bid at that yield was 34.4%.
• This week's ACGB supply is at the top end of the recent average weekly issuance of $1500-2000mn, with A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 bond sold yesterday and A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.
• According to the Budget 2025-26 Issuance Program Update from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM), total issuance of Treasury Bonds (including Green Treasury Bonds) in 2025-26 is expected to be around $150 billion. Issuance of Treasury Indexed Bonds by tender is expected to be between $2 billion and $3 billion (additional issuance by syndication may be considered).
• For 2024-25, issuance of Treasury Bonds has been revised to around $100 billion, including around $2 billion of Green Treasury Bonds. Treasury-Indexed Bond issuance will be around $3 billion.
• Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100 AEST.