EU REAL ESTATE: Swiss Prime Site: 6yr Guidance
• Guidance: €500m WNG 6yr ms+95a
• Books >€3.7bn
• IPT: €500m WNG 6yr ms+125a - leads
• FV: ms+85
• Comps: Colonial 31s ms+90; Merlin high 80s. Gecina mid 60s is the clear market-leader for prime
(SPSNSW; A3/NR/NR)
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US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update - Massive Volume
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete jumped to over a third of outstanding Sep'25 open interest after Friday's massive volume. "First Notice" date next week Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 91,400 from -8.75 to -8.5, -8.75 last; 41% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 69,500 from -5.25 to -5.0, -5.25 last; 39% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 198,500 from -1.25 to -1.0, -1.25 last; 38% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 138,800 from -0.5 to +0.0, -0.5 last; 37% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 25,400 from 12.5 to 13.0, 12.75 last; 41% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 48,000 from 7.5 to 8.0, 7.75 last; 41% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30. Meanwhile, Sep'25 Tsy options will expire LAST Friday, August 22.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 112-01+ @ 11:26 BST Aug 25
- SUP 1: 111-13 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support around the 50-day EMA, at 111-13. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Regional Fed Data, Home Sales, Fed Speakers
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/25 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.10, -0.11)
- 08/25 1000 New Home Sales (627K, 630K), MoM (0.6%, 0.5%)
- 08/25 1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (0.9, -1.7)
- 08/25 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
- 08/25 1515 Dallas Fed Logan Bank of Mexico conf (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 1915 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks Bank of Mexico (text, Q&A)
- 08/25 Building Permits (1.354M, --), MoM (-2.8%, --)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
