POWER: Swiss Hydro Stocks Widen Deficit to Five-Year Average
Swiss hydropower reserves last week - calendar week 49 - declined by 4.7 percentage points to 61.4% ...
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STIR: ECB VP Reaffirms Rates Are In Good Place, ~10bp Of Cuts Still Priced
EUR STIR markets also see modest hawkish adjustments on the back of the upturn in wider risk sentiment given tentative progress towards the reopening of the U.S. government.
- Euribor futures 0.5-2.5 lower, strip steeper.
- ERZ6 1.0 off month-to-date lows.
- ECB-dated OIS still pricing ~40% odds of one further cut in the current cycle.
- Vice President de Guindos reaffirmed the idea that policy settings are in a good place in an interview with Diario de Noticias.
- The Eurozone calendar is very limited today, with nothing in the way of meaningful macro event risks to highlight.
- The German ZEW survey (Tuesday) and final national level HICP data (through the week) headline this week’s Eurozone economic calendar.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR (bp) |
Dec-25 | 1.923 | -0.9 |
Feb-26 | 1.908 | -2.4 |
Mar-26 | 1.871 | -6.1 |
Apr-26 | 1.864 | -6.8 |
Jun-26 | 1.833 | -9.9 |
Jul-26 | 1.830 | -10.2 |
Sep-26 | 1.824 | -10.8 |
SILVER TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: $56.153 2.500 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 3: $55.444 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 16 - 17 price swing
- RES 2: $54.480 - High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $51.071 - 61.8% retracement of Oct 17 - 28 bear leg
- PRICE: $49.888 @ 08:19 GMT Nov 10
- SUP 1: $46.320/45.557 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: $40.000 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $38.087 - Low Aug 27
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. The trend has recently been in overbought territory and the retracement has allowed this to unwind. Price remains above support at the 50-day EMA, at $46.320. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $54.480, the Oct 17 high. Initial resistance is $51.071, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILTS: Bear Steepening On Wider Risk Sentiment
Gilts gap lower at the open.
- Broader risk-positive sentiment a factor following the tentative movement towards a reopening of the U.S. government.
- Local fiscal issues also remain in focus given some disagreement within the Labour cabinet re: the viability of breaking manifesto tax pledges.
- Futures as low as 92.75 before a recovery to 92.85.
- Contract through support at the 20-day EMA (92.98), signalling scope for an extension of the recent bearish correction. Next support located at the October 20 low (92.38).
- Yields 2.0-3.5bp higher, curve steeper.
- 2s10s set for the highest close since October 14.
- BoE’s Lombardelli appears today, but she may not speak on monetary policy as she will give opening remarks and chair a panel at the BoE & Bank of Ghana Pan-African Central Bank Governors’ conference.
- Labour market data (due tomorrow) headlines this week’s UK calendar.
